838
FXUS66 KMTR 270455
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
855 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
- CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
- MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES NORTH BAY AND SF. AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT B/W 0.01" AND
0.2".
- DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN TOPIC OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW SHOWING A BETTER CONSENSUS FOR A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN TO COME THROUGH THE NORTH BAY AND PARTS OF THE SF BAY AREA FOR
THE LATER PART OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THAT WETTING RAINS (RAIN TOTALS ABOVE 0.1") GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY, WITH THE SONOMA COASTAL RANGES AND
THE MAYACAMAS SEEING RAIN TOTALS AROUND THE 0.25"-0.5" RANGE.
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN BOTH MOUNTAIN RANGES COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER HALF AN INCH IF THE INGREDIENTS ALIGN FOR TRAINING SHOWERS OR
UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME INTERESTING VARIATION IN THE RAIN
TOTALS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SF BAY AREA, AND GIVEN THAT WE
ARE ALREADY ON THE FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE PLUME, THAT ISN'T
SURPRISING. THE HRRR PROVIDES SOMETHING AKIN TO A REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO WHERE PARTS OF THE BERKELEY HILLS, THE CITY OF SAN
FRANCISCO, AND THE SAN MATEO COASTAL RANGES MIGHT EDGE OVER THE 0.1"
MARK IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION COMING AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. BY
CONTRAST, THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS MODEL KEEPS THE BAY AREA RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IF THAT. IN ANY CASE, IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL, BEGINNING AND ENDING WITH WET
ROADWAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LONGER TERM, WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING BASED OFF ELEVATED HIGH TIDES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE PREDICTION, THE BAYSIDE SHORELINE
OF MARIN COUNTY COULD START TO GET COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO,
SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAY COASTLINES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO IN
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, WE ARE MONITORING HIGH SWELL COMING IN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BREAKING WAVES UP TO 20
FEET, AND AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THESE INCOMING CONDITIONS AND
ISSUE ANY NECESSARY PRODUCTS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO, LARGELY IN PART TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELTA. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY DO EXIST, BUT VERY LIMITED ON WHO
WILL ACTUALLY GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
AND LIFTING TOWARD THE NE, MOST RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY (0.05" TO 0.25"), WITH LIGHTER OR EVEN TRACE AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SF PENINSULA AND IMMEDIATE SF BAY REGION. INTERIOR EAST
BAY, SOUTH BAY, AND AREAS SOUTH OF WATSONVILLE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE DRIZZLE AT BEST. THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT PROMOTING DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT
MENTION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 337 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH KLVK BEING THE EXCEPTION AT MVFR TO
DUE ONGOING HAZE. VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT KSTS, KLVK, AND
POSSIBLY KAPC (20-30%). TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS WILL
LOWER AND RAIN WILL LURK TO THE WEST WITH A FRONT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING S TO SW TUESDAY. TAIL END OF 30 HR TAF LOWERING CIGS AND
SOME VCSH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SLANTWISE HAZE ISSUES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 855 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH OF POINT REYES WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY
THAT NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS BUILD
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...MM
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