047
FXUS66 KMTR 271141
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
341 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 319 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
- MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTH BAY INTO BAY AREA, WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.1"-0.2" EXPECTED WHERE IT DOES RAIN
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
AND RIPTIDES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE 00Z KOAK SOUNDING RECORDED 0.43" PWAT LAST NIGHT WITH HIRES
SHORT-TERM SOUNDINGS INDICATING SIMILAR OR LOWER VALUES UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH BAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT
BEGINNING TO SATURATE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
THAT FAR NORTH. PREFRONTAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTH BAY COASTAL RANGES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDED LIFT. OTHERWISE, THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, AND SHIFT EAST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER RAIN TOTALS
SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.1" WHERE IT
DOES RAIN. INLAND AREAS OF THE NORTH BAY LIKE SANTA ROSA ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AROUND 0.20" (MEAN HI-RES ENSEMBLE %) WITH HIGHER END
REASONABLE AMOUNTS NEAR 0.30" (HI-RES 75TH%), THUS LITTLE IMPACTS
BEYOND WETTING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER EAST AS THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OUR
AREA TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPING
QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AS A RESULT WITH
ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS FILLING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AND
INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIPTIDES ALONG WITH BREAKING WAVES UP TO 19FT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT ISSUED
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, SEE THE BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN AS SOON AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER A LACK IN
CONSENSUS OF THE LOCATION, DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
LEAVES FAR MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 931 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
RUSH. GENERALLY VFR WITH A MIX OF MVFR FOR HZ/BR AT KLVK/KAPC AND
IFR AT KSTS. MVFR TO IFR DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW WITH APPROACHING
FRONT,LOWERING CIGS, AND POSSIBLE RAIN.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. STRONGER DRAINAGE/SE WINDS AT SNS
TUESDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH OF POINT REYES
WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS DIMINISH
ON WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY THAT NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT BUILD ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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