036
FXUS66 KMTR 280212
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
612 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
- LIGHT RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND PORTIONS OF
THE BAY AREA. UP TO 0.5" OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND UP TO
0.1" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA
- WARM, DRY WEATHER AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY
AND SAN FRANCISCO/SAN MATEO PENINSULA. AS OF 12PM THIS AFTERNOON,
KMUX HAS BEEN TRANSITIONED BACK INTO PRECIPITATION MODE WITH THE
FIRST ECHOES SHOWING UP OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. FOLKS ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY WILL START TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAKE LONGER TO EXTEND INTO THE REST OF THE
BAY AREA WITH THE EAST BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO/SAN MATEO PENINSULA NOT
SEEING ANY RAIN UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE COMPARED
TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE IN THE NORTH BAY
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 0.50" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE NORTH BAY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.15-0.25" AND
UP TO 0.10" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO/SAN
MATEO PENINSULA. THE HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. THIS
IS MOSTLY WORTH NOTING SINCE THE NBM DOES NOT SHOW SHOWERS EXTENDING
THAT FAR SOUTH. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH A TRACE UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS CLEAR OUT BY 10/11AM
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S, WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AS LAST WEEK WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND WARM
AFTERNOONS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY BUT
THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS (E.G. SALINAS VALLEY AND INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST) WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REACH THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BOTH COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND BRING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BACK TO THE
FORECAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ABOUT HALF OF THE MODELS
INDICATING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE THE OTHER HALF SHOW
NO RAIN AT ALL. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH
CHANCES DECREASING THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. AT THIS MOMENT IT
REMAINS POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS MIXED. LOOKING WAY OUT INTO
THE FUTURE - ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY BUT NO CLEAR
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY EXISTS.
WITH THE UPCOMING WEEK SHAPING UP TO BE WARM AND SUNNY, BEACHGOERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
9PM WEDNESDAY TO 9AM FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COASTLINE
FROM SONOMA COUNTY TO MONTEREY COUNTY. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE
BEACHES SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
KMUX RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NORTH BAY. CONDITIONS ARE VFR-MVFR WITH CLOUD LAYERS ALOFT.
CLOUD LAYERS ARE NOT FAR FROM THE BASE OF A SUBSIDENCE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION NEAR 6800 FEET ON THE EVENING UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
OAKLAND. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BAY
AREA TONIGHT. A FEW AREAS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LIFR-IFR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EVENING. MAINLY A LIGHT WIND DURING THE 00Z TAF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,
VFR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXCEPT ONSHORE NEAR 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTH OF POINT REYES WITH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH
TO NORTHERLY THAT NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY, BUT BUILD ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 359 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE THAT NIGHT WHILE
PERIODS STAY LONG LEADING TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 09 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 09
AM FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 14 TO 19
FEET. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...RGASS
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