270
FXUS66 KMTR 281740
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
940 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 256 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
- WARM, DRY WEATHER AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTH BAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED
- MINOR KING TIDE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE EAST BAY VALLEYS AND NORTH BAY
VALLEYS ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE. VISIBILITIES AT PETALUMA AND NOVATO
HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED FROM 1/4SM TO 3SM. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FROM LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, KMUX HAS BEEN SWITCHED BACK INTO CLEAR
AIR MODE FROM PRECIPITATION MODE WITH SHOWERS NO LONGER EXPECTED. UP
TO 0.15" OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EAST BAY AND ALONG
THE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN MATEO PENINSULA. THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS SAW UP
TO 0.25" WHILE THE COASTAL NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS SAW AROUND 0.40-
0.60". DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE WEAKENING BUT STALLED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND THE COASTAL RANGES FROM MARIN COUNTY
SOUTH TO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN A .10" EXPECTED
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE BEFORE SHUTTING DOWN ENTIRELY. INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS AND THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RESPOND TO
THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST TODAY WITH A BUILDING, POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE PRODUCING WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TICK
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AREA WIDE WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE MORE MILD TEMPS WE WOKE UP TO YESTERDAY DUE TO LESS
CLOUD COVER AND MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 256 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE STABLE PATTERN AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LARGER SCALE
LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP, SHARPENING TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE EPAC, WHILE THE RIDGING BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. BY THE TIME THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS MAKING
PROGRESS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST, IT WEAKENS AND LIFTS FARTHER
NORTH. CURRENTLY THE SIGNAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
WEAKER THAN WHAT WE HAD PASS THROUGH YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH ANY RAIN THAT DOES
MATERIALIZE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY IN THE NORTH
BAY. WE MAY SEE SOME KING TIDE COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WELL, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE AS IMPACTFUL AS WHAT WE SAW
LAST MONTH, WITH MINIMAL STORM SURGE ADDED TO THE FORECASTED
HEIGHTS GIVEN THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERSISTENT HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
RIDGING TO DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL (IN LINE WITH THE CPC
OUTLOOK). HOWEVER AN UNUSUAL RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF-LOW
ABANDONED BY THE JET STREAM OVER THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST HAS PLENTY
OF TIME TO SHIFT AND KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE OVER SOCAL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 937 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO
ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP, EXPECT
CLEARING BY AROUND 18Z THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE INNER
WATERS AND OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED
THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. REMEMBER: STAY
OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE,
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF, AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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