308
FXUS66 KMTR 290419
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
816 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- MINOR KING TIDE COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- WARM, DRY WEATHER AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OTHERWISE IT'S CLEAR
AND DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AVERAGED
APPROX 4F TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR AREA IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFO ON THE FORECAST PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSIONS BELOW.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH RIDGING REBUILDING OVER
THE WEST COAST. PATCHY FOG RETURNS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY
SHORELINE. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
CHILLIEST SPOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO TODAY. MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH PORTIONS OF THE
SALINAS VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WHERE FOG WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST AND FORCES
THE RIDGE TO EXIT EASTWARD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
GIVEN ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND IT WILL EXIT OUR AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING REBUILDS BY LATE MONDAY AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST (AND ARGUABLY PAST THE
END) OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN
5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE TWO
WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST, PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY, AND THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL STAY IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES
COOL, BECOMING MORE SEASONAL, SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE COOL
DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. UNFORTUNATELY FOR RAIN LOVERS, ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED AND IT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
TO THE NORTH BAY COASTAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RETURNING TO THE WEST COAST AROUND MID-
FEBRUARY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SF BAY SHORELINE
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY EFFECT LOW LYING
AREAS DIRECTLY ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS MONTH. IF YOUR COMMUTE TAKES YOU
DIRECTLY ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE, BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO YOUR DRIVE AND LOCAL ROAD/PARKING LOT CLOSURES. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT GOES INTO EFFECT AT 9PM TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9AM FRIDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE BEACHES
SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ DEVELOPING E.G. KSTS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. N-NE WIND TEMPORARILY SHIFTING TO NW THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WIND 10 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY
EVENING THEN BECOMING E-SE WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 805 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER
WATERS WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. REMEMBER: STAY
OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE,
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF, AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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