342
FXUS66 KMTR 290806
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1206 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ONLY IMPACT IS RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER
VALLEY. IF DRIVING IN THE AREA, SLOW DOWN, USE YOUR LOW-BEAM
HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. OTHER THAN
THAT, LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHER ELEVATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SJC WILL CHALLENGE ITS DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY - THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 71 DEGREES SET IN
2015. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY COEXIST WITH
FAIR WEATHER, PLEASE READ THE BEACHES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY (DURING THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE DAY) TO
BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND
MONTEREY BAY. THE FORECAST HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT 0.4 FT OF STORM
SURGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN: THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, THE IMPACT OF THE SWELL, AND
WIND DIRECTION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OUT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE RESULTING PATTERN YIELDING ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY TROUGHY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RENEW
RAIN CHANCES, BUT DON'T GET TOO EXCITED. THE ENSEMBLES OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS BRINGING ANY RAIN TO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPING IT
ALL OVER THE WATER. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
A PAUSE IN THE WARMING TREND, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND MAYBE
SOME DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH BAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBUILD MONDAY, LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AT LEAST. THIS WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER
AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ DEVELOPING E.G. KSTS
BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. N-NE WIND TEMPORARILY SHIFTING TO NW THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WIND 10 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY
EVENING THEN BECOMING E-SE WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 805 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER
WATERS WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. REMEMBER: STAY
OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE,
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF, AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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