340
FXUS66 KMTR 291735
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
935 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN. ISOLATED FOG REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (NOVATO AND PETALUMA) AND IN THE VICINITY
OF CONCORD. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AND FOG COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
RISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY WILL
REACH THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ONLY IMPACT IS RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER
VALLEY. IF DRIVING IN THE AREA, SLOW DOWN, USE YOUR LOW-BEAM
HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. OTHER THAN
THAT, LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHER ELEVATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SJC WILL CHALLENGE ITS DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY - THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 71 DEGREES SET IN
2015. HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY COEXIST WITH
FAIR WEATHER, PLEASE READ THE BEACHES SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY (DURING THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE DAY) TO
BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND
MONTEREY BAY. THE FORECAST HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT 0.4 FT OF STORM
SURGE. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN: THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, THE IMPACT OF THE SWELL, AND
WIND DIRECTION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GET BOOTED OUT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE RESULTING PATTERN YIELDING ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY TROUGHY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RENEW
RAIN CHANCES, BUT DON'T GET TOO EXCITED. THE ENSEMBLES OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS BRINGING ANY RAIN TO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPING IT
ALL OVER THE WATER. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE
A PAUSE IN THE WARMING TREND, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND MAYBE
SOME DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH BAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBUILD MONDAY, LIKELY
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AT LEAST. THIS WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER
AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 925 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG IS STARTING TO IMPROVE OVER THE SANTA ROSA
PLAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
EXPECTING VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE SAME
AREA IS EXPECTING FOG TO RETURN AND LINGER THROUGH MIDMORNING. WEAK
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO HAVE A GREATER
PROBABILITY OF REMAINING OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
ROUGH SEAS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 925 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. ALSO, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HIGH TIDES UP TO 1.4
FT ABOVE NORMAL (ON SATURDAY AT 9:30 AM AT THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL
GAUGE). THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SAN
FRANSICO, SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAYS. FLOODING OF LOTS, PARKS,
AND ROADS WITH ONLY ISOLATED ROAD CLOSURES EXPECTED.
REMEMBER: STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF,
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...KENNEDY
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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