028
FXUS66 KMTR 300435
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
835 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DIRECTLY ALONG THE BAYSHORE FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY, SAN PABLO BAY, AND MONTEREY BAY AT HIGH TIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1244 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND OFFSHORE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
USUAL SUSPECTS (NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND EAST BAY VALLEYS). LOCATIONS
ALONG THE DELTA AND AREAS IN THE FAR EASTERN EAST BAY (VICINITY OF
BYRON) WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT (VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4SM). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SF BAY SHORELINE AND MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE
THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND
MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE MONTH.
COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH UP TO 1.4 FT OF
INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL EXPECTED. THIS FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR
UP TO 0.4 FT OF STORM SURGE DUE TO INCOMING SWELL FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1244 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ON
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER, SJC IS SET TO TIE ITS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD ON
SATURDAY. IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH A HIGH OF 71 DEGREES
WHICH TIES THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM 2015. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST. THE
SALINAS AIRPORT GETS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF ITS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
BUT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY BELOW IT (FORECAST: 74; RECORD
HIGH: 79 IN 1976). SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY
(KING CITY EXTENDING SOUTH) ARE FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK
AROUND 75/76 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS TROUGH NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH RAIN CHANCES SEVERELY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. AS IT
STANDS NOW, ONLY 2 OUT OF 50 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A TRACE OF
PRECIPITATION AT THE SANTA ROSA AIRPORT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
MOUNTAINS IN SONOMA COUNTY BUT THIS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. WE RETURN TO OUR
STATUS QUO (UPPER LEVEL RIDGING) BY TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND RAIN COULD RETURN BY MID-FEBRUARY BUT THE ECWMF AND
GFS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS
IS A WAYS OUT BUT COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 835 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT'S A MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG /LIFR-IFR/ DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT N-NE WIND.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. E-SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO LIGHT E-SE MID TO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 832 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE ROUGH SEAS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES ALONG THE COASTLINE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 925 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. ALSO, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HIGH TIDES UP TO 1.4
FT ABOVE NORMAL (ON SATURDAY AT 9:30 AM AT THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL
GAUGE). THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT COASTAL AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SAN
FRANSICO, SAN PABLO, AND MONTEREY BAYS. FLOODING OF LOTS, PARKS,
AND ROADS WITH ONLY ISOLATED ROAD CLOSURES EXPECTED.
REMEMBER: STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF,
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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