722
FXUS66 KMTR 141117
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
317 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 314 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT AS A SERIES OF THREE STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND
ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID-WEEK AND ONWARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 314 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BUILT IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS HAS LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING TO
POCKETS OF THE NORTH BAY VALLEY AND THE SALINAS VALLEY. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG COVER TO EXPAND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY VALLEYS. THE INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SURFACE INSULATED ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FOG
OUTSIDE OF THE FAVORED VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
LAST DRY DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
AND EJECTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER US TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY IN PART THANKS TO THE
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS AND THANKS TO A COOLER AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED
IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. WINDS STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
GUSTS ACROSS THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE WHERE A COASTAL JET LOOKS TO SET
UP OFFSHORE OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. A 10-20% CHANCE OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OFFSHORE
BUT THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 314 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF THREE STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BRING AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 2-4"
ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO AROUND
5" ARE EXPECTED IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTH BAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DROP EVERYWHERE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH THE PORTIONS OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN STAYING IN THE 40S. AT THE SAME TIME, WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRIEFLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTIER WINDS, AND RAIN
WILL MAKE BEING OUTSIDE FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN HIGHS IN THE 50S
SUGGEST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5" OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" ACROSS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA LUCIA RANGE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A 10-
20% CHANCE CONTINUING EACH DAY THIS WEEK. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH
WEAKER COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN DECEMBER SO ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH
COLDER AS A COLDER AIR MASS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ADVECTS IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA
BY LATE WEEK AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST (PARTICULARLY THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE. CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA BUT CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
AREAS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE NEEDING ONE AS WELL. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A THIRD WEAKER SYSTEM
ARRIVES THURSDAY AND GENERALLY BRINGS LIGHT RAIN, UP TO HALF AN
INCH, TO THE REGION. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INITIALLY START OUT LOW
BUT WILL INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF RAINFALL. WHILE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS, ANY
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING WILL BE MADE WORSE BY THE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK. MAINSTREAM RIVERS SHOW A LOW (< 10%)
CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING OCCURING AT THE SAN LORENZO RIVER AT BIG
TREES, PAJARO RIVER AT CHITTENDEN, AND SALINAS RIVER AT SPRECKLES.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN EARLY THIS WEEK, SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT (FAR NORTH BAY) AND TO AROUND 3000 FT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF MT.
ST. HELENA/MT. HOOD/MT. VACA, THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS, THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE, AND THE GABILAN
RANGE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE BETWEEN
2-7" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE AND THE
GABILAN RANGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITHIN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
SNOWFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 9 AND NEARBY MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES. THE
OVERALL SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS WE GET WITHIN
RANGE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SNOWFALL
SCENARIOS TO TAKE PLACE IF A MORE CONVECTIVE BAND IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. MAKE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE FORECAST TO SEE HOW
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 936 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND, THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK
HAS RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT OVER THE BAY AREA TERMINALS. THIS WILL
VERY LIKELY BE TEMPORARY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF MARINE
STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BACKED
OFF ON VISIBILITY IMPACTS, BUT HAS ALSO HELD ONTO THE LOWER IFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS LONGER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ON SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS THIS
EVENING BEFORE RECENTLY SCATTERING OUT. IT'S A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO TELL HOW LONG THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LAST AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING A CLEAR SATELLITE BASED VIEW ON THE STRATUS. WEBCAMS
SHOW A PRETTY LEGIT DRY AIR INTRUSION THAT SHOULD LAST FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER HUMID AIR BRINGS MORE STRATUS BACK
IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...I WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED TO SEE THE LOW
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT. A LAYER OF OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS HAS MOVED IN, WHICH
WILL HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND THE SNS TAF LOOKS
BETTER THAN IT DID AT 00Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE A STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZE GENERATES ROUGH SEAS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND QUICKLY RESTRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A HIGH WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT, AND RETURN AGAIN IN THE
EARLY WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 945 PM PST THU FEB 12 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY, THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 14 TO 19 FEET. REMEMBER: STAY OFF OF JETTIES,
PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE, REMAIN OUT OF
THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...MURDOCK
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