823
FXUS66 KMTR 151648
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
848 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 410 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
- RAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS ARRIVE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND
ADVISORY LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 836 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
PICTURESQUE SATELLITE IMAGE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN OCCLUDED SURFACE
LOW JUST WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE POPCORN SHOWERS OR SCOUT SHOWERS AHEAD OF
BETTER FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. THE REGION WILL STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
STEADIER RAIN AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT AS IT GRAZES OUR COASTLINE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE'RE SEEING PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT TIGHTENING OF GRADIENTS
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THEREFORE, AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS OCCURING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AN IMPRESSIVE
GUST TO 49 MPH AT POINT REYES WITH 40-45 MPH INTERIOR N BAY MTS.
OTHER WIND SPOTS ARE IN THE 25-35 MPH.
NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 410 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURING WEST
OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER IN, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THAT, WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 15-30 MPH. THE
WINDIEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND ELEVATED TERRAIN WHERE
GUSTS TO 45 MPH, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER WILL BE OBSERVED. IN TERMS
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE
NORTH BAY 0.6-2.5" AND AROUND 0.6-1.75" SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
SANTA LUCIA. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-1.0" FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND ABOUT 0.1-0.5" FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST AND EAST AND SOUTH BAY COUNTIES. THE WPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE BAY AREA, SHOULD WE GET MODERATE TO HEAVY
PERIODS OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 410 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING HOLDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND.
THE FIRST ROUND FOR THE WORK WEEK, WILL BE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CA. THIS WILL LIKELY
OCCURING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, CREATING SLICK ROADWAYS
AND PERHAPS PONDING ON ROADWAYS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE
EVENING. THE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THE GOLD GATE AREA SOUTHWARD,
CLIPPING OAKLAND AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTH BAY. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO PAINTED OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND
MONTEREY COAST. AND IN TERMS OF THUNDER, THE SPC NOW HAS GENERAL
THUNDER OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
LOOKING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE SEE MORE WIND AND RAIN WITH A
NEW FLAVOR ADDED TO THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR. PRECIPITATION WILL
START OFF AS RAIN, BUT BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
1-1.5" MOST AREAS AND UP TO 2-3" SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA
LUCIA RANGE. SNOW LEVELS FROM 4000-5000FEET TO ABOUT 2200-4300FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN DOWN TO 1500-2700FT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE AROUND AROUND THE NORTH BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST NORTH BAY
PEAKS LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO AT THIS TIME, AND THE FOR THE
DIABLO RANGE PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. FOR
THE SANTA LUCIA, 10-20" IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SANTA
LUCIAS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PERIODICALLY GUSTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, LIKELY HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH COLD AND WET CONDITIONS, WE WILL NEED TO ASSESS FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS LINGER INTO LATE WEEK, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COLD PRODUCTS BEING NEEDED.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES. WE MAY GET A BRIEF DRY PERIOD HERE IF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS ABLE TO BUILD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH BUILDING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT NEARS. EXPECT MODERATE, TO AT TIMES, INCREASED RAIN
RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BUILD IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE ON
LAND. RAIN RATES REDUCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVING INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...SOUTHEAST WINDS LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. RAIN RATES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL, REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN RATES
TO REDUCE, AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED INTO THE LATE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO REDUCE, BUT STAY MODERATE. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS
ARRIVE INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH LONGER BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILD. STRONGER GUSTS
ARRIVE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A BRIEF
SLOW DOWN IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING, BUT THE MAIN
RAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY NIGHT, LEADING TO BREEZIER
WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM INCREASED RAIN RATES ALONG WITH
MVFR CIGS. RAIN RATES REDUCE IN THE LATE NIGHT AS GUSTS CUT OFF, BUT
SHOWERS CONTINUE BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WITH BUILDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN
RATES ALSO INCREASING. THIS WILL BE THE START OF MULTIPLE STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING STRONG WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A HIGH WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 556 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO AT 9:34 AM
SUNDAY, 10:16 AM MONDAY, AND 10:58 AM TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...RGASS
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