724
FXUS66 KMTR 152244
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
244 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST MONDAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CENTRAL COAST
MTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 150 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OFF THE NORCAL
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE "BUSINESS" SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN, HEAVY SHOWERS, AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OVER THE WATERS, AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS SHOWS LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND A 0.10-0.50 COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY UP TO
1.00 INCH NORTH BAY COAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN GUSTING 25-35
MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 50-60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
POINT REYES AND N BAY INTERIOR MTS.
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL GET REAL INTERESTING AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE CLEAR.
YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THE OFFSHORE LOW GETTING A BOOST FROM SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET FEATURES. WELL, TODAY'S CAMS SHOW THE CYCLOGENESIS
REALLY TAPPING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL JET. TODAY'S GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CYCLONIC CURVED JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
CURVED JET WILL TAKE AIM AT THE CENTRAL COAST. SOME GUIDANCE PUTS
THE FOCUS MORE NORTHWARD, BUT MOST KEEP IT CLOSER TO MONTEREY
BAY. THIS SET UP IS A PRIME EXAMPLE TO FOSTER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS.
NOT A "BOMB", BUT RAPID NONETHELESS. LATEST HRRR/HREF/WRF MODELS
DROP THE SURFACE LOW TO 995-ISH MB. THE NEWLY DEEPENED LOW WILL
DRIFT NE INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FOLLOWING THE PATH OF THE JET MAX
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RAPID DEEPENING WILL
FACILITATE VERY STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL FOR
TSTORMS. FOR THE WIND, DIDN'T GO ALL IN AS TIME/STRENGTH DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT FELT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADV
FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADV WILL STILL BE WINDY, SIMILAR TO
TODAY. AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SPC STILL HAS THE CENTRAL COAST IN A
MARGINAL RISK. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, JET
DYNAMICS, AND COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN SOME WEAK SHEAR WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY ROTATING CELLS. SPEAKING OF COLDER AIR ALOFT, THE AIR MASS
WILL COOL BEHIND THE LOW DROPPING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION TO
LESS THAN 5K. THEREFORE, SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA LUCIA AND GABILAN RANGES. ISSUED A WINTER
WX ADVISORY FOR AREA ABOVE 3K FEET BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 240 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NE WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY
ARRIVES FROM THE N MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAYBE A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL EASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP WITH A THIRD SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. LASTEST GUIDANCE FROM OUR HYDRO PARTNERS KEEPS OUR MAINSTEM
RIVERS IN CHECK WITH LESS THAN 10% FOR FLOODING, BUT URBAN/SMALL
STREAM ISSUES WILL LIKELY BUILD THROUGH OUT THE WEEK AS MORE RAIN
PILES UP. RAINFALL TOTALS TUE/WED: 0.50-1.0 INCHES MOST AREAS AND
1.0-2.5 INCHES SANTA CRUZ MTS/SANTA LUCIA MTS. MORE RAIN
THURS/SAT: MOST AREAS 0.25-0.75 INCHES AND LOCALLY 1.0-1.5 INCHES
SANTA CRUZ MTS/SANTA LUCIA MTS. THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE WINTER WX ADV WILL ACCUMULATE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME TUE/WED. ESPECIALLY THE MTS ABOVE BIG SUR WITH 20
INCHES WITH IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE THE N AND E BAY
AREAN'T IN THE WINTER WX ADV AT THE MOMENT THEY'LL LIKELY SEE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN THE LOWERING TREND OF SNOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE SANTA
CRUZ/SANTA CLARA COUNTY LINE ABOVE 2000 FEET. NOT BUYING OFF ON IT
JUST YET, BUT FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE SOME GUIDANCE REALLY
DROPS SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE N BAY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW
WET FLAKES BELOW 1500 FEET. STAY TUNED FOR THAT.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIP WE'LL BE HOLDING ONTO GUSTY WINDS TOO.
INSTEAD OF BEING FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THEY'LL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT WIND ADV LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUT CONF ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE IT. THE COMBO OF
WIND AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WILL MAKE FOR POOR CONDITIONS
WITH POTENTIAL VSBY ISSUES AND TREES BURDENED BY SNOW COMING
DOWN.
LASTLY, WHILE SNOW LEVELS DROP IT GOES WITH OUT SAYING THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP. THE COMBO OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE SHELTER. A MIXTURE OF COLD WX AND EXTREME
COLD PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S AND 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH MORE MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE NORTH BAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COAST
AND POTENTIALLY REMAINS OFFSHORE, EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND/OR CEILINGS AT TIMES WHEN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING A BIT LATE
IN THE EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER, DO NOT HAVE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR (POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
IFR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA, NORTH BAY,
AND COASTAL TAF SITES) EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AT TIMES OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VISIBILITIES
AND/OR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE EARLY TO MIDMORNING ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AT TIMES OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE EVENING, MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WITH BUILDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN RATES ALSO INCREASING. THIS WILL BE THE START OF MULTIPLE
STORM SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO GENERATE ROUGH SEAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TODAY AND BECOMING STRONG WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A HIGH WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 556 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO AT 9:34 AM
SUNDAY, 10:16 AM MONDAY, AND 10:58 AM TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ516>518-528-
530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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