370
FXUS66 KMTR 161242
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
442 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CENTRAL COAST
MTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 342 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST (NORTH
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN WINTER MODE, ACTIVE WITH ~ 7 LONG
WAVE TROUGHS). WITHIN THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH THERE IS A
WEAKENING, VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE TO 500 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER (OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE) OFFSHORE ~ 350 MILES WEST OF SANTA
CRUZ. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, IT'S CURRENTLY 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ AND MOVING MAINLY NORTHWARD. THE SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND TO OUR AREA TODAY. A STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE
OF DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL CAUSE A STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT
(FRONTOGENESIS) AT 850 MB AND 700 MB TODAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE INCLUDED IN THIS PROCESS ALL WILL STEEPEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. 200 MB JET STREAM WINDS ARE ALREADY
AT THE BASE AND FORWARD OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT WINDOW OF THE SECOND LOW WILL BE SHORT I.E. THROUGH
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST BEFORE THE LOW TAKES A MORE EASTWARD MOTION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH THE LOW PEAKS TODAY BETWEEN 0.75" AND 0.80" WHICH IS
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. OUPUT FROM NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS VARIED AS TO HOW STRONG WINDS MAY GET WITHIN
THIS NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TODAY; IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR SUDDENLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY, INCLUDING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND GUSTY LATER ON TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW FLOOD
ADVISORIES SO FAR. WITH ONGOING DOWNPOURS, REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KMUX RADAR
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT (AND TUESDAY) WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 342 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING MEANS ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER INCLUDING
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, MAYBE TEMPORARY BREAKS BUT OTHERWISE WE'RE
CATCHING UP ON RECENTLY DRY WEATHER. THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY OF
COLD AIR THIS WEEK WILL MODIFY 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE WAY, BUT PER RECENT NAM OUTPUT FOR EXAMPLE WE MAY STILL GET 850
MB TEMPERATURE LOWERING NEAR -4 CELSIUS, NEAR THE MINIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MIXING, UPWARD TRANSPORT
OF SEA SURFACE HEAT AND WATER VAPOR, INSTABILITY, LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OTHERWISE CAUSE WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE, ALONG
WITH LOTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN, IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTIER WINDS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. OPTED TO GO A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THE BASELINE FOR MOST TAF SITES BASED ON WHAT WE
SAW OVERNIGHT. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SHOULD GENERALLY VARY FROM VFR
TO MVFR, THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
POCKETS OF RAIN TODAY. WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN FEATURE MOVE ONSHORE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ONSHORE AFTER THIS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
A RENEWED PUSH FOR GUSTIER WINDS AND PERHAPS A PAUSE OR A REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY, UNLESS
STRONGER POCKETS OF RAIN MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. THEN WE COULD SEE
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY DROP TO MVFR OR PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING ONSHORE AFTER THE LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AFTER 0Z.
TOMORROW MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING, HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN DROPPED
VISIBILITY INTO IFR TERRITORY. THE THREAT FOR REDUCED VIS DUE TO
RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN CHANCES EASE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH, BEFORE SHIFTING
ONSHORE AND REMAINING BREEZY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
MONTEREY BAY, WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 556 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO AT 9:34 AM
SUNDAY, 10:16 AM MONDAY, AND 10:58 AM TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ516>518-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page