008
FXUS66 KMTR 161759
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
959 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- STRONG WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK; WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CENTRAL COAST
MTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
- MUCH COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW MID TO LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 342 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST (NORTH
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN WINTER MODE, ACTIVE WITH ~ 7 LONG
WAVE TROUGHS). WITHIN THE WEST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH THERE IS A
WEAKENING, VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE TO 500 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER (OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE) OFFSHORE ~ 350 MILES WEST OF SANTA
CRUZ. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, IT'S CURRENTLY 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ AND MOVING MAINLY NORTHWARD. THE SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND TO OUR AREA TODAY. A STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE
OF DIFFERING AIR MASSES WILL CAUSE A STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT
(FRONTOGENESIS) AT 850 MB AND 700 MB TODAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE INCLUDED IN THIS PROCESS ALL WILL STEEPEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS. 200 MB JET STREAM WINDS ARE ALREADY
AT THE BASE AND FORWARD OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH, THUS THE
DEVELOPMENT WINDOW OF THE SECOND LOW WILL BE SHORT I.E. THROUGH
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST BEFORE THE LOW TAKES A MORE EASTWARD MOTION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WITH THE LOW PEAKS TODAY BETWEEN 0.75" AND 0.80" WHICH IS
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. OUPUT FROM NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION HAS VARIED AS TO HOW STRONG WINDS MAY GET WITHIN
THIS NARROW WINDOW OF TIME TODAY; IT'S A GOOD IDEA TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR SUDDENLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY, INCLUDING A WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND GUSTY LATER ON TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW FLOOD
ADVISORIES SO FAR. WITH ONGOING DOWNPOURS, REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR KMUX RADAR
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT (AND TUESDAY) WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 342 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHING MEANS ADDITIONAL WET WEATHER INCLUDING
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, MAYBE TEMPORARY BREAKS BUT OTHERWISE WE'RE
CATCHING UP ON RECENTLY DRY WEATHER. THE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY OF
COLD AIR THIS WEEK WILL MODIFY 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE WAY, BUT PER RECENT NAM OUTPUT FOR EXAMPLE WE MAY STILL GET 850
MB TEMPERATURE LOWERING NEAR -4 CELSIUS, NEAR THE MINIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MIXING, UPWARD TRANSPORT
OF SEA SURFACE HEAT AND WATER VAPOR, INSTABILITY, LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OTHERWISE CAUSE WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE, ALONG
WITH LOTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 929 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
MIXED BAG OF FLT COND ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A POTENT,
COLD CORE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST OF CA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXITING THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
LOW STRATUS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND THICK CLOUD COVER ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY MORNING PRIOR TO SUNRISE LASTING THRU THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PERHAPS BIGGER STORY FOR AVIATORS WILL BE GUSTY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHELTERED INLAND
VALLEYS.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENT ROUND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN LASTING
THRU 19Z WITH SCATTERED SHRA AFTERWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY NW POST-FRONTAL WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS BEHIND US AT
LEAST THRU MIDDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND MONTEREY BAY
REGIONS. MOSTLY DRIER OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS, BUT ANTICIPATING MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
MONTEREY BAY, WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 556 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE WILL BRING MINOR
HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO AT 9:34 AM
SUNDAY, 10:16 AM MONDAY, AND 10:58 AM TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ516>518-528-530.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...KR
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