110
FXUS66 KMTR 171233
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
433 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 327 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL COAST MTS AND SANTA CLARA HILLS
TODAY THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH BAY AND SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
- EXTREME COLD WARNING LOS PADRES NF/SANTA LUCIA MTNS AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
- RAIN AND LOW SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVE
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM TODAY FOR
MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING
- MUCH COLDER LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 421 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
LARGE, DEEP, COLD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST ISN'T GOING
ANYWHERE SOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
COLDER AIR INTO THE BAY AREA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE COLDER AIR IS PICKING UP SEA SURFACE HEAT -EVEN WITH
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THAT'S MILDER
COMPARED TO AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LOW SNOW
LEVELS. RECENT CHECK OF AIR TEMPS AT MT ST HELENA, MT DIABLO, MT
UMUNHUM, MT HAMILTON AND CHEWS RIDGE VARY FROM 29F TO 34F
SUPPORTING SNOW. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THE SANTA
CLARA HILLS AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST MOUNTAINS WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH SF BAY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
WAS ISSUED FOR THE LOS PADRES NF/SANTA LUCIA MTNS AND INTERIOR
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TEMPORARY
GREATER INFLUX OF MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME UPWARD FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT NONETHELESS COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS SUCH AS UNHOUSED INDIVIDUALS, PETS AND
LIVESTOCK. COLD CONDITIONS MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE CROPS,
PLANTS, AND VEGETATION IF APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA
FOR PEOPLE, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 421 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. IF
CLEARING TAKES PLACE AND THERE ARE LIGHT WINDS THIS COMBINATION IS
MORE IDEAL TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO LOWER DUE TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE
COOLING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY BREAK IN
THE WEATHER. WHEN THE WEEKEND ARRIVES SO TOO WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND WIND WITH ANOTHER LARGE COLD POOL OF AIR
TAPPING PACIFIC MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REDUCING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS SPOTTY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS STAY WEST TO NORTHWEST AND MODERATE TO
BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINS ARRIVES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OFFERING MODERATE, TO AT TIMES, INCREASED RAIN
RATES LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE AND
TURN SOUTHERLY ALONG THIS RAIN BAND WITH GUSTS PEAKING ABOVE 30 KTS
FOR MOST SITES. RAIN RATES REDUCE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WINDS
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO REDUCE. STORM
CHANCES WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR STORMS MOVING INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIGHT AND INCONSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE AREA. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT LINE OF MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARRIVES INTO THE EARLY MORNING LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN RATES AND MORE CONSISTENT RAIN CHANCES. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS TO ARRIVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY INTO THE
EVENING AS THEY TURN MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE
NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SHOWERS ARE EXITING WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS REMAIN AT MRY THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHILE SNS GOES SOUTHEASTERLY
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS RETURN IN THE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZIER AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGER AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN RATES INCREASE. SHOWERS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THAT EVENING WHILE WINDS
TURN WESTERLY AND REDUCE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WITH MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
ARRIVING LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SLACKEN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AGAIN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS
RETURNING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO THE MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 448 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE ARE BRINGING
MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AT 10:58 AM
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY,
RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508-529-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ504-506-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ517-518.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page