914
FXUS66 KMTR 172300
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
300 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 327 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER IMPACTING PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
SHELTER
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION THURSDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AROUND THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THANKS TO A ROBUST COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE COLD FRONT SQUARELY IN SF BAY/S BAY
REGION HEADING TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS. AS SUCH, WE'RE SEEING REPORTS OF
MINOR FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, AND ADDITIONAL LANDSLIDES/ROCKS/MUD
ON ROADS. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RAIN PERSIST EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SIMPLY PUT, IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR A COMMUTE BE HEADS UP AS WEATHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
WE'VE ALSO RECEIVED LOTS OF QUESTION ABOUT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY HAS BEEN FINICKY TO SAY THE LEAST WITH SNOW LEVEL
FLUCTUATIONS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE DRIFTED
HIGHER AND CAMS EVEN SHOWED A SWITCH OVER AT TIMES TO RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS WILL EAT INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR SURE.
REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS AND LEFT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADV AS IS.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
SLOWLY S AND E. BEHIND THE FRONT WE'LL STILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY EASE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS IS COLD AND ANY BIT
OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD AIRMASS TO BE REALIZED. GIVEN
THE DAMP CONDITIONS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE SHELTER. AS SUCH, EXPANDED THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR THE SANTA
CLARA HILLS, SANTA CRUZ MTS, AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY. BLACK ICE
COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE COLD SPOTS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY
GIVEN TEMPS FLIRTING AROUND FREEZING.
FOR WEDNESDAY: A COLD START TO THE DAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ANOTHER UPPER
LOW THEREFORE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A GENERAL MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY DEVELOPED STORM COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL TOO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TOMORROW THAN TODAY,
BUT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE IN QUESTION. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 1500 FEET OVER THE N BAY AND 2500 FEET CENTRAL COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP AS ONE UPPER
LOW EXITS AND ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE W AND NW.
ONE BIGGER QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW COLD DOES IT
GET? THERE WILL BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS, BUT THEY QUICKLY FILL
BACK IN. THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOL. THEREFORE,
CONF WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO CONT THE COLD WEATHER ADV OR EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN (MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES), CHANCE FOR THUNDER/HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL PROJECTIONS: 0.5-1.0" MOST AREAS AND UP TO 2-2.5" COASTAL
MTS. WIND WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT STILL
GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH AND LOCALLY TO 50 MPH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. AS FOR
SNOW, LITTLE BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER WITH THE SNOW LEVELS RISING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATING
SNOW OVER MOST HIGH PEAKS IN THE REGION. MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WX ADV. PRECIP TAPERS OFF HEADING INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING AS WELL. FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS LIKELY.
INTERESTING LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IN THE TROUGH A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS DEVELOP AND THEN PIVOT AROUND EACH OTHER OFF
THE PACNW COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WARMER
SYSTEM WITH MUCH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS TOO.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST. A POTENTIAL INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL FAR OUT, BUT SOME AR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOWER END AR.
THIS COULD HAVE BIGGER IMPACTS GIVEN HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'VE BEEN
PILING UP WITH THIS WEEK'S SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN BANDS MOVING THRU BAY AREA AS OF THIS 18Z
HOUR, FEATURING EMBEDDED HEAVIER CELLS WITH SOME FRQT LTG. MUCH
OF THIS TSRA ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE 21Z
HOUR. RAIN RATES REDUCE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO WESTERLY. WINDS LOOK TO TURN MORE NW IN THE
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN BANDS MOVING THRU BAY AREA
AS OF THIS 18Z HOUR, FEATURING EMBEDDED HEAVIER CELLS WITH SOME
FRQT LTG. MUCH OF THIS TSRA ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE 21Z HOUR. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS TO LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING AS THEY TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE NIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRONGER AND GUSTIER SW WINDS BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON AS RAIN RATES INCREASE. SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHILE WINDS TURN
WESTERLY AND REDUCE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS THE MORNING.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SLACKEN SOME
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AGAIN
WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS RETURNING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER
INTO THE MID WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 448 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
THE COMBINATION OF SPRING TIDES AND STORM SURGE ARE BRINGING
MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UP TO 1.0 FT OF INUNDATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY, WITH UP TO 1.5 FT IN THE MONTEREY BAY. AT THE
SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AT 10:58 AM
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THROUGHOUT THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY,
RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508-529-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ504-506-512-513-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ514-517-
518.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ514-517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...BEHRINGER
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