831
FXUS66 KMTR 180705
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1055 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 327 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER IMPACTING PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
SHELTER
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION THURSDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM HAS PUSHED ITS
WAY SOUTH OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, SOME OF THEM RATHER INTENSE,
PERSIST ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN
SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE BAY AREA FROM THE
STRONGEST CELLS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
RAIN COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AROUND THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THANKS TO A ROBUST COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS PUTS THE COLD FRONT SQUARELY IN SF BAY/S BAY
REGION HEADING TO THE CENTRAL COAST. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS. AS SUCH, WE'RE SEEING REPORTS OF
MINOR FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, AND ADDITIONAL LANDSLIDES/ROCKS/MUD
ON ROADS. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND RAIN PERSIST EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SIMPLY PUT, IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR A COMMUTE BE HEADS UP AS WEATHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
WE'VE ALSO RECEIVED LOTS OF QUESTION ABOUT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY HAS BEEN FINICKY TO SAY THE LEAST WITH SNOW LEVEL
FLUCTUATIONS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE DRIFTED
HIGHER AND CAMS EVEN SHOWED A SWITCH OVER AT TIMES TO RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS WILL EAT INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR SURE.
REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
PEAKS AND LEFT CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADV AS IS.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
SLOWLY S AND E. BEHIND THE FRONT WE'LL STILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY EASE OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGER IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS IS COLD AND ANY BIT
OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD AIRMASS TO BE REALIZED. GIVEN
THE DAMP CONDITIONS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE SHELTER. AS SUCH, EXPANDED THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR THE SANTA
CLARA HILLS, SANTA CRUZ MTS, AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY. BLACK ICE
COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE COLD SPOTS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY
GIVEN TEMPS FLIRTING AROUND FREEZING.
FOR WEDNESDAY: A COLD START TO THE DAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ANOTHER UPPER
LOW THEREFORE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A GENERAL MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY DEVELOPED STORM COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL TOO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TOMORROW THAN TODAY,
BUT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE IN QUESTION. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 1500 FEET OVER THE N BAY AND 2500 FEET CENTRAL COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 157 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP AS ONE UPPER
LOW EXITS AND ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE W AND NW.
ONE BIGGER QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW COLD DOES IT
GET? THERE WILL BE SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS, BUT THEY QUICKLY FILL
BACK IN. THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOL. THEREFORE,
CONF WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO CONT THE COLD WEATHER ADV OR EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN (MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES), CHANCE FOR THUNDER/HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL PROJECTIONS: 0.5-1.0" MOST AREAS AND UP TO 2-2.5" COASTAL
MTS. WIND WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT STILL
GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH AND LOCALLY TO 50 MPH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. AS FOR
SNOW, LITTLE BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER WITH THE SNOW LEVELS RISING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. STILL THINKING ACCUMULATING
SNOW OVER MOST HIGH PEAKS IN THE REGION. MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WX ADV. PRECIP TAPERS OFF HEADING INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING AS WELL. FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS LIKELY.
INTERESTING LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IN THE TROUGH A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS DEVELOP AND THEN PIVOT AROUND EACH OTHER OFF
THE PACNW COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WARMER
SYSTEM WITH MUCH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS TOO.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST. A POTENTIAL INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL FAR OUT, BUT SOME AR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOWER END AR.
THIS COULD HAVE BIGGER IMPACTS GIVEN HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'VE BEEN
PILING UP WITH THIS WEEK'S SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS AFFECTING THE AREA, BUT WILL REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCONSISTENT MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS STAY WESTERLY INTO THE EVENING BUT SOME
AREAS LOOK TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REDUCE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE COAST. STORM CHANCES WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REDUCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT BUILD AGAIN THAT NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REDUCE, BUT RAIN
CHANCES LINGER WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. EXPECT RAIN TO REDUCE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THAT EVENING AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. A STRONGER BAND OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND BECOMING GUSTIER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SHOWERS LAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT WITH
BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS. RAIN CHANCES REDUCE INTO THE LATE NIGHT
AS WINDS REDUCE. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN AT MRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WHILE SNS GOES SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINS RETURN IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT REDUCE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 901 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TO STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. BREEZY TO GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LASTING THROUGH THE LIGHT. WINDS WEAKEN INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BUT QUICKLY BECOME STRONG AGAIN WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
RETURNING. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO THE MID WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES
FOR FRIDAY, FEB 20TH.
LOCATION RECORD LOW
SANTA ROSA 26 IN 1913
KENTFIELD 27 IN 1913
NAPA 27 IN 2018
RICHMOND 35 IN 1990
LIVERMORE 27 IN 2018
SAN FRANCISCO 38 IN 1897
SFO AIRPORT 36 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 30 IN 1933
HALF MOON BAY 28 IN 2018
OAKLAND MUSEUM 36 IN 2011
SAN JOSE 30 IN 1897
SALINAS AIRPORT 28 IN 1953
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ504-506-
512-513-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ514-517-
518.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ514-517-518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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