058
FXUS66 KMTR 181120
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
320 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 327 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER IMPACTING PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
SHELTER
- ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
REGION THURSDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 320 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED TO A MIX OF 30S AND
40S, MILDEST AT SEA LEVEL NEAREST THE BEACHES AND BAYS. THE SNOW
LEVEL HAS LOWERED TO APPROX 2000 TO 2500 FEET WHILE MOUNTAIN TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED TO THE LOWER 20S ON MT ST HELENA TO THE
MID 20S AT OTHER MOUNTAIN TOPS IN THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL
COAST. NORTHWEST WIND MOVING ACROSS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S IS RESULTING IN SURFACE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (SNOW AT AND ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET).
KMUX SHOWS THE SHOWERS/SNOW ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
NORTH BAY SOUTHWARD TO SAN FRANCISCO AND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
SHORELINE AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE IT IS CLEARING, RADIATIVE
COOLING IS RESULTING IN LOWERING VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY MIST/FOG.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS (PRODUCT DETAILS
WWUS76 OR NPWMTR) REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM TODAY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES (PRODUCT DETAILS WWUS46 OR WSWMTR) REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
THERE WAS AT LEAST ONE REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN THE SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS AT ~ 2500 FEET ELEVATION LATE LAST EVENING. THE
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK OF COURSE, BUT HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH IS THE QUESTION.
CURRENT KMUX RADAR SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMING UPSTREAM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS, WITH RECENT MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWING MAYBE UPWARDS OF 0.10" LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR POTENTIAL FOR
UPWARDS OF 1" MORE SNOW. WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE SOON BEGINNING,
HIGHWAY 17 SUMMIT AT ~ 1900 FEET MAY SEE SNOW FLURRIES TO SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. 1900 FEET ELEVATION IS
CLOSE TO OR MAY BE TEMPORARILY ABOVE THE MELTING LAYER THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TRAVELERS OVER THE SUMMIT SHOULD KEEP THIS IN MIND, ICY
ROAD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
A QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ TO
FORM. WE'RE STUCK IN THE COLD, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10F TO 15F
BELOW FEB NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN SHOWING THE NEXT IN LINE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING RAIN /HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY/ AND WIND. WITH THE
LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIX DOWN TO VALLEYS AND SEA LEVEL.
NOCTURNAL TIMING ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
HAVE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH RECENTLY DEPOSITED COLD AIR MASS, I.E. IT
WILL HAVE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. IT CAN DO
IT IF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE LOW ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVER-RIDE THE
STABILITY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY, SINCE WINDS AT
THE MOMENT LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO BUT BELOW ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 320 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
WITH ALL THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TAKING PLACE, LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SET UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
GET A DRY WEATHER BREAK, BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY TO COLD. MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE,
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY LOWER UNDER
NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE COOLING. WE'LL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR FEB
20TH AT THE LONG TERM SITES, THE RECORDS HAVE BEEN POSTED BELOW
FOR REFERENCE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME-FRAME, WE'LL BE
LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL EXTREME COLD WARNINGS/COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES. AND THERE MAY BE CARRYOVER OF COLD TEMPERATURES
I.E. WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
500 MB PATTERN FAVORS THE RETURN OF RAIN WITH A MILDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL HAVE TO SCOUR OUT WHAT REMAINING COLD THERE'LL BE
INITIALLY. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS PATTERN OF COURSE SINCE
IT'LL BE TAPPING INTO A MORE WATER VAPOR RICH ENVIRONMENT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS AFFECTING THE AREA, BUT WILL REDUCE INTO
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INCONSISTENT MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS STAY WESTERLY INTO THE EVENING BUT SOME
AREAS LOOK TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REDUCE. SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MORE OF A FOCUS ALONG
THE COAST. STORM CHANCES WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REDUCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT BUILD AGAIN THAT NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REDUCE, BUT RAIN
CHANCES LINGER WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. EXPECT RAIN TO REDUCE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THAT EVENING AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. A STRONGER BAND OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING WEST AND BECOMING GUSTIER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SHOWERS LAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT WITH
BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS. RAIN CHANCES REDUCE INTO THE LATE NIGHT
AS WINDS REDUCE. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN AT MRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WHILE SNS GOES SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINS RETURN IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT REDUCE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TO STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS SLACKEN AND
BECOME FRESH TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BUT QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG AGAIN WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS RETURNING. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES
FOR FRIDAY, FEB 20TH.
LOCATION RECORD LOW
SANTA ROSA 26 IN 1913
KENTFIELD 27 IN 1913
NAPA 27 IN 2018
RICHMOND 35 IN 1990
LIVERMORE 27 IN 2018
SAN FRANCISCO 38 IN 1897
SFO AIRPORT 36 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 30 IN 1933
HALF MOON BAY 28 IN 2018
OAKLAND MUSEUM 36 IN 2011
SAN JOSE 30 IN 1897
SALINAS AIRPORT 28 IN 1953
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ504-506-
512-513-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ514-
517-518.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ514-517-
518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....CANEPA
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...KR
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