889
FXUS66 KMTR 061724
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
924 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
- BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
SATELLITE IS GENERALLY CLEAR OVER OUR SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING
AND 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE AS OF 9 AM IS + 3 TO 8 DEGREES. STARTING
WARMER AND THE FORECAST DAYTIME HIGH IS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER.
FORECAST IS LOOKING ON TRACK FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS FROM
THE NORTH REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY UP IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. OVERALL, A CLEAR AND WARM DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR...SAN FRANCISCO. THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY
WARMTH FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE THE CITY PEAKING OUT AT 78
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. WE'LL LOOK CLOSER AS MORE DATA COMES IN, BUT
THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE LINING UP IN A FAVORABLE
DIRECTION TO CAUSE A MICRO CLIMATE SPIKE IN TEMPS FOR THE CITY. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME, FROM WHAT I'M LOOKING AT, TO SEE TEMPS POP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR PORTIONS OF THE CITY DURING A BRIEF
PERIOD ON SATURDAY. THAT FOLLOWING A WARM-ISH NIGHT TONIGHT, COULD
CAUSE AN EARLY SEASON WARM SURPRISE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 340 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY, WHILE WINDS IN THE REST OF THE AREA HAVE REDUCED. EXPECT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT
NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND TODAY WITH HIGHS
BEGINNING TO BREAK BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY, AND IN SPOTTIER LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT REDUCE AGAIN INTO THE NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING
BREEZINESS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 340 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON FINE ADJUSTMENTS IN
WIND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT SOME TUNING WAS DONE TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. ONE CHANGE OF NOTE IS THE INCREASED WARMING IN
THE NORTH BAY FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE
WARMEST IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SONOMA COUNTY, WHILE MOST AREAS
ARE SET TO SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK ON SUNDAY. PEAK TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL SPAN FROM THE MID 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEN INTO
THE 70S FOR THE AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND. MOST AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW OF THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS SET TO
BREAK 80 DEGREES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME VERY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FLEXES INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE REESTABLISHMENT OF A THIN MARINE LAYER. BECAUSE OF THIS QUICK
CHANGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AROUND 5 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT. THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION, ONLY COOLING BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING THE COOLING TREND,
BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK RIDGE REFORMS IN THE JET
STREAM. AND BY WEAK, I MEAN JUST BARELY OUT OF ZONAL FLOW. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDUCE, BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE, ALLOWING FOR THAT SLIGHT WARMING.
THE CHANGE BACK TO A SLIGHT RIDGE PATTERN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON RAIN CHANCES THAN TEMPERATURES. IN THAT IT WILL PREVENT
ANY RAIN MAKERS FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF FRONTS HITTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BUT AS THOSE FRONTS MOVE SOUTH, THEY
BEND AND BREAK AS THEY APPROACH CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD OFFER SOME
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE VERY NORTH END OF THE STATE, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
PATTERNS LIKE THESE DO BECOME MORE COMMON GOING INTO THE DRY SEASON,
SO THIS MAY BE A SIGNAL THAT OUR RAINS WILL BECOME FEWER AND FURTHER
BETWEEN AS WE CONTINUE INTO MARCH. BUT THIS ISN'T SET IN STONE JUST
YET, WITH SOME HINTS IN THE VERY-LONG TERM MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING THE
FLOW PUSHING MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH,
DISRUPTING THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 340 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LLWS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS;
HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
FL020 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY AND
EAST BAY NEAR THE TERMINALS OF APC AND LVK.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK TO BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT MRY AND
VFR WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT SNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZES AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS
NORTHERLY BREEZES DIMINISH AND SEAS ABATE, YET HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. BY MONDAY,
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS RETURN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...BFG
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page