773
FXUS66 KMTR 071131
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
331 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
- WARMER TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE
- SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE WORK WEEK, BUT ANOTHER WARMING TREND IN
THE MID WEEK
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 328 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ASIDE FROM A FEW BREEZY SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY, WINDS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
HAS FLEXED INTO A VERY TILTED RIDGE AND HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, LEADING TO MUCH WEAKER WINDS, BUT STILL OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS REDUCTION IN WINDS WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHICH WILL STICK TO THE 60S, AND A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS
BREAKING INTO THE 80S. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST FOR SONOMA CO AND SAN FRANCISCO, WHILE SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND DOWN THE CENTRAL COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO COOL INTO THE NIGHT, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO BE SOME OF THE WARMEST IN THE FORECAST. MOST AREAS WILL
STICK TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 328 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SONOMA CO AND SAN FRANCISCO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY FROM A MODEST RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THOSE
AREAS. THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE WARMING TREND WITH MOST AREAS BREAKING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S AND MORE OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BREAKING
INTO THE 80S. THIS WILL PLACE HIGH TEMPS JUST BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
RELIEF FROM THE WARMTH COMES IN THE FORM OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING TO SHIFT. THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH AND RESTORES ZONAL FLOW
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WON'T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT A
ZONAL PATTERN MEANS ONSHORE FLOW. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN FLOW,
PRESSURE WILL REDUCE, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND CHANCES FOR FOG. MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SEE HIGHS DROP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
CONTINUED COOLING EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK, EASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
THE COOLING TREND BE SHORT LIVED AS THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TURNS
BACK INTO A GENTILE, BUT MUCH LARGER, RIDGE PATTERN INTO THE MID
WEEK. SINCE THE GRADIENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE GENTLE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BUILD AT A SLOW PACE, BUT THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE A MUCH
LARGER RIDGE MEANS IT'LL BE MUCH SLOWER FOR IT TO EXIT. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH
WEAKENING WINDS FOR ALL BUT THE OUTER MARINE ZONES.
AGAIN THE SIZE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE SITTING
AT A SOUTH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO AVOID THE MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MEANS THIS RIDGE COULD
LAST WELL INTO THE MID MONTH, CAUSING WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED
CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURES WILL PUSH PLENTY OF RAIN
THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WHILE THIS RIDGE PREVENTS THOSE
CHANCES FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH. SOME OF THE VERY LONG TERM
MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH,
BUT IT COULD LAST LONGER THAN THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 328 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED FOR BAY
AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL WINDS RETURNING
TONIGHT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED IN THE BAY AREA TAFS THROUGH THIS MORNING
TO CAPTURE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS AT FL020.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DIURNAL WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR AND CALM AT MRY AND VFR WITH
DRAINAGE FLOW AT SNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES. MODERATE SEAS IN THE
INNER WATERS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AS
NORTHERLY BREEZES INCREASE TO BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE AND SEAS
BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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