096
FXUS66 KMTR 072053
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1253 PM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 PM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
- COOL TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER WARMING TREND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1253 PM PST SAT MAR 7 2026 (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY)
THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING OVER NORTH BAY TODAY
WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA. THIS IS
SETTING UP RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A BROAD SWATH IN
NORTH BAY AND BEYOND TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES ON THE
TOP OF THE UPPER LOW, WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ACROSS MANY PART OF
THE BAY AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS STARTING
TO PRESSURE ON THE RIDGE, FORCING IT FARTHER SOUTH, THUS PUSHING
THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTH TOO. AS EVERYTHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WE'LL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTH BAY
THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS
TOO WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TOO. WHILE SONOMA COUNTY HAS BEEN THE WARM PLACE TODAY,
TOMORROW IT WILL BE INTO SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST. THE NBM, FOR
TOMORROW, SHOWS LIMITED SPREAD (~2 DEGREES) IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR
NORTH BAY WITH WIDER SPREAD (~3 TO 5 DEGREES) OVER SOUTH BAY AND
CENTRAL COAST. THIS PROVIDES SOME COMFORT THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL ENOUGH. STILL, WITH THE FORECAST TODAY THE NBM
5.0 WAS USED FOR TEMPS TOMORROW. THIS IS ABOUT WHAT NBM 4.3 75TH
PERCENTILE IS AT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE FORECAST IS LEANING A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL NBM DETERMINISTIC.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1253 PM PST SAT MAR 7 2026 (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY)
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SERVICE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A BROAD SCALE COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MORE
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THIS A BE A RESULT OF A SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN SHIFT. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE A DIVE SOUTH INTO
OREGON, JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR GENERAL FLOW. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE BRIEF HIT AS THE JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST AND ALLOWS
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD. MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE NEXT WARM
UP TO BEING ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING US BACK TO ABOUT WHERE WE ARE
THIS WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY THERE IS, ON AVERAGE, A 10 DEGREE SPREAD
IN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES, SO THERE ARE STILL SOME
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. THAT SAID, THE FRIDAY 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALY CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. ON TOP OF THAT, THE
EFI AND SOT ARE 0.90+ FOR SOUTH BAY AND THE CENTRAL COAST FOR
THURS AND FRI. AT THIS POINT, THINGS ARE LOOKING SOLID FOR THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEASER...YOU THINK THIS IS WARM? WAIT UNTIL THE WEEK OF THE 15TH.
CPC HAS OUR AREA WITH 70-80% PROBABILITY OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL
BETWEEN MARCH 15-21. AND THE WHISKERS ON SOME OF THE TEMP MODELS
OUT THAT FAR ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO THE 90S FOR SJC. IF YOU
ARE A SUMMER PERSON, IT'S COMING FOR YOU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026 VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE TAFS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. OVERALL, IT DOESN'T GET MUCH BETTER TO FLY THAN WEATHER
LIKE TODAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS BACKING
TO NORTHWEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING, BUT
ABOUT 25% WEAKER WINDS. VFR IS DOMINANT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BUT TAKE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT, SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
TODAY. HIGHEST CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF HALF MOON BAY,
SUBSIDING FARTHER SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL
WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GALES DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS.
EXPECT ELEVATED SEA STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BFG
LONG TERM....BFG
AVIATION...BFG
MARINE...BFG
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