082
FXUS66 KMTR 081548
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
848 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 308 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
- BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAY AREA ARE RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST IS +/- 5
DEGREES. GOING BY THE HOW DOES IT FEEL METRIC, IT IS A LITTLE
COOLER THIS MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAVE
BEEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, OFFSHORE, THIS MORNING, AS BORNE OUT BY
THE 12Z BALLOON, THEY ARE A LOT WEAKER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
AS SUCH, WE'RE NOT SEEING THE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND
SUBSEQUENT WARMING IN AREAS LIKES SONOMA. HENCE THE DROP OF ABOUT
7 TO 15 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THAT SAID, EVEN THE WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW HAS DONE ITS JOB IN PROVIDING US GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE SUNRISE. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS SOLID WITH WARMING AGAIN
TODAY AND A MARINE LAYER RETURNING TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE CHANNEL OF N/NE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA IS GRADUALLY EASING OVERNIGHT AND WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE H50 HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY, THICKNESS VALUES WILL MODERATE INCREASE OVER OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY
DAY AREA WIDE, LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, WITH
NOTICEABLY LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS. NEAR-SHORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND POCKETS OF LOW 80S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO MONDAY
FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER
WEAK IT MAY BE, AND FALLING H50 HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 308 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE STALLED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF SOCAL OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
COMBINES WITH THE POLAR JET DOWNSTREAM TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE A
HORIZONTAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ONSHORE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, AS BROADER LARGER SCALE RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NO RAIN IN SIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. MODERATE (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LVK WHICH HAS LOWER PROBABILITIES (10-20%). THE RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO
DEVELOP. IF CLOUDS END UP DEVELOPING IN THE MARINE LAYER, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER THAN THE LOW-END MVFR THAT IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE RETURN OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
THE CURRENT TAF ADVERTISING LOW-END MVFR. AN ALTERNATE/BEST CASE
SCENARIO FOR SFO INCLUDES A MORE COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER OF LESS
THAN 1,000 FEET WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE SAN
BRUNO GAP. A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT FOG COMES TO
FRUITION IN THE MARINE LAYER. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT. LOW-END MVFR IS ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT
TAFS TO BEGIN THE DOWNWARD TREND INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR
ONCE GUIDANCE/MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT. DIURNAL WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 848 AM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS GALES
DEVELOP. EXPECT VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND MONTEREY BAY ARE EXPECTING ROUGH CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
UPDATE...BFG
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...BFG
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