874
FXUS66 KMTR 091027
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
327 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
- PATCHY FOG LIFTS BY MID-MORNING
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST BUT
ALSO INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AFTER A
WEEKEND OF ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN, ALBEIT WEAK, WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING UNDER WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT ANY
REMAINING PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THEN RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID-40S ALMOST AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BRIEF 'COOL DOWN' ON TUESDAY IS BEST DESCRIBED BY A DIP IN H85
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES (CELSIUS) UNDER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
PROGRESSIVE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AND BEYOND. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH H85 TEMPS LIFTING
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (CELSIUS). THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF PERSISTENT RIDGING INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH H50 HEIGHTS
APPROACHING DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS (AS NOTED IN THE SUNDAY
EVENING UPDATE) BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA, BRINGING COOLER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE COASTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. A NARROW CLOUD DECK IS
ALREADY IMPACTING HAF, MRY AND SNS. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT IS IF
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND TO REACH THE BUSIER BAY AREA AIRPORTS
OR NOT. THE TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MARGINALLY BETTER OVER MY
SHIFT, BUT THERE IS STILL NEARLY A 30% CHANCE THAT THE BIG 3
AIRPORTS SEE CEILINGS AROUND 13-17Z. IF CEILINGS FORM, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE IFR BASED ON THE CURRENT IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE TERMINAL IS CLEAR FOR NOW, WITH STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP. THE SURFACE
HUMIDITY HAS RESPONDED TO THE SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE WINDS
THIS EVENING. AT 3:20 PM THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION WAS 27 DEGREES.
NOW ITS DOWN TO 3 DEGREES. THAT MEANS STRATUS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
SURPRISE US AND JUST FORM OVER THE TERMINAL, RATHER THAN ADVECT IN.
OTHERWISE STRONG WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER ANY
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...WHILE THE MONTEREY BAY EDDY HASN'T
DEVELOPED YET, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAY DID FILL WITH STRATUS AS
OF 04Z, AND CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTH. THESE
IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN
THE LATE MORNING MONDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. AS A RESULT, VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL BUILD IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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