375
FXUS66 KMTR 091117
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
417 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
- PATCHY FOG LIFTS BY MID-MORNING
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST BUT
ALSO INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AFTER A
WEEKEND OF ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN, ALBEIT WEAK, WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING UNDER WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT ANY
REMAINING PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THEN RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID-40S ALMOST AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BRIEF 'COOL DOWN' ON TUESDAY IS BEST DESCRIBED BY A DIP IN H85
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES (CELSIUS) UNDER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
PROGRESSIVE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AND BEYOND. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH H85 TEMPS LIFTING
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (CELSIUS). THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF PERSISTENT RIDGING INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH H50 HEIGHTS
APPROACHING DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS (AS NOTED IN THE SUNDAY
EVENING UPDATE) BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH FOG/STRATUS
ALONG THE PACIFIC COST. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
YET WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND STILL A FEW HOURS OF COOLING
TO GO; HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. IFR/LOW-END MVFR
STRATUS IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE PACIFIC COAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY LIFR AND CALM AT BOTH TERMINALS.
AN OTTER EDDY IN THE MONTEREY BAY IS BRINGING VARYING CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AT SNS WITH
MRY LIKELY TO REMAIN TRANSIENT BETWEEN FOG AND LIFR STRATUS THROUGH
THE MORNING. DIURNAL WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. AS A RESULT, VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL BUILD IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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