168
FXUS66 KMTR 091735
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1035 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST BUT
ALSO INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AS ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AFTER A
WEEKEND OF ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THE
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN, ALBEIT WEAK, WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING UNDER WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT ANY
REMAINING PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW THEN RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WEST-EAST RIDGE AXIS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID-40S ALMOST AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 323 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BRIEF 'COOL DOWN' ON TUESDAY IS BEST DESCRIBED BY A DIP IN H85
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES (CELSIUS) UNDER A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
PROGRESSIVE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AND BEYOND. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH H85 TEMPS LIFTING
BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (CELSIUS). THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF PERSISTENT RIDGING INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH H50 HEIGHTS
APPROACHING DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS (AS NOTED IN THE SUNDAY
EVENING UPDATE) BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, CLEARING TO VFR LATE
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND MORE SO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN
TO THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING
ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BOTH IN THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, YET LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR AT KMRY, VFR RETURNING TO KSNS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT BOTH
SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. AS A RESULT, VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL BUILD IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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