169
FXUS66 KMTR 092021
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
121 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY, WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER,
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SOME 3-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TONIGHT, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. THUS, TUESDAY
MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY BE IN THE LOWER
40S (NORTH BAY VALLEYS) TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
TODAY AS A WEAK DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOW 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE WARMEST
INTERIOR SPOTS HAVE A 50%-90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES F.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IF
THEY WERE TO MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. THESE VALUES
WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE NEXT 14 DAYS. STAY TUNED
AS WE REFINE THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, CLEARING TO VFR LATE
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND MORE SO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN
TO THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING
ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BOTH IN THE NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, YET LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR AT KMRY, VFR RETURNING TO KSNS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT BOTH
SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL JET REGION OF POINT REYES. AS A RESULT, VERY ROUGH SEAS
WILL BUILD IN THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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