177
FXUS66 KMTR 100426
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
926 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY, WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST AND ACROSS
THE MONTEREY BAY REGION, WITH PATCHES OF CLOUD POPPING UP NEAR
GILROY, WATSONVILLE, AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SAN MATEO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH DISRUPT CLOUD FORMATION PROCESSES. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER,
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SOME 3-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. TONIGHT, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN TO THE MONTEREY BAY REGION AND COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. THUS, TUESDAY
MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY BE IN THE LOWER
40S (NORTH BAY VALLEYS) TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
TODAY AS A WEAK DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOW 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE WARMEST
INTERIOR SPOTS HAVE A 50%-90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES F.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IF
THEY WERE TO MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. THESE VALUES
WARM INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS SUCH, NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE NEXT 14 DAYS. STAY TUNED
AS WE REFINE THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS WORKING AGAINST FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES BETTER MIXED IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SURFACE.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRONG WNW WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE
SAN BRUNO GAP EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TAF REMAINS VFR, BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...UNLIKE THE BAY AREA TERMINALS, MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT BOTH SNS AND MRY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MONTEREY
BAY EDDY PUMPS COOL HUMID AIR TO THE TERMINALS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT,
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO AVOID LIFR IMPACTS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 831 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS
ARE BUILDING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12-15 FEET. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO A FRESH
TO STRONG NW BREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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