191
FXUS66 KMTR 100948
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
248 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETS IN ON
WEDNESDAY
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
EPAC RIDGE THAT WILL DOMINATE OUR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY. HOWEVER, A BROAD TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NORCAL INTERACTING WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL PRODUCE GRADIENT FORCING FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA
COASTLINES, ALONG WITH A TIGHT THERMAL H85 GRADIENT ACROSS
NORCAL. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE SURFACE WINDS EASE
THIS EVENING, H85 FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BECOME OFFSHORE
ONCE AGAIN. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, MORE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 40S AND EVEN UPPER
30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE IN FULL SWING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA, SOME 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. WE'LL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 90S IN THE
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY BY SUNDAY, EXPANDING IN AREA BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK SET IN
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING AREAS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON SOME OFFSHORE TROUGHING AS THE IMPRESSIVE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS EAST WELL BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 PM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS WORKING AGAINST FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES BETTER MIXED IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONG NW WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SURFACE.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRONG WNW WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE
SAN BRUNO GAP EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TAF REMAINS VFR, BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...UNLIKE THE BAY AREA TERMINALS, MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED AT BOTH SNS AND MRY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MONTEREY
BAY EDDY PUMPS COOL HUMID AIR TO THE TERMINALS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT,
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO AVOID LIFR IMPACTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL JET
REGION OF POINT REYES. AS A RESULT, VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD IN
THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page