711
FXUS66 KMTR 110703
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1203 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETS IN TOMORROW
- WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR THE SHORT TERM, WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A LITTLE BIT OF WEATHER NERDITRY FOR THE UPCOMING WARMUP: THE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR MARCH 16
IS 62 DEGREES, WITH THE RECORD HIGH OF 85 HAVING BEEN SET IN 1914.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PUTS NEXT MONDAY'S HIGH AT DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO AT 84 DEGREES, 22 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IF
THIS FORECAST PLAYS OUT IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO HAS SEEN CONDITIONS THIS HOT SINCE OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED BEFORE THE WARM-UP BEGINS!
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S NEAR THE COAST AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT,
EXPECTING LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
NORTH BAY AND COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST.
OTHERWISE, LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
TOMORROW WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR SPOTS HAVE A 50%-90%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES F. THIS IS WHEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
15- 25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IF THEY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE. ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY WE HAVE MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EVEN SOME COASTAL SPOTS SUCH AS
THE SANTA CRUZ REGION. THESE DAYS, MONTHLY RECORDS FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MET OR BROKEN. THIS IS ALSO WHEN
THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK SHOWS GREATER THAN 90%
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH THIS EVENT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVERHEAD. IT GOES WITHOUT SAY THAT RAIN IS
NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS
CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AT MRY, GENTLE
WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE COURSE
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE DURING THE SAME PERIOD, BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT SNS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN DURING THE
EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 831 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ROUGH SEAS AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1140 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM
SITES FOR MARCH 12TH, 15TH, 16TH AND 17TH.
LOCATION MAR 12 MAR 15 MAR 16 MAR 17
SANTA ROSA 83 IN 2007 88 IN 2004 91 IN 2004 87 IN 1996
SAN RAFAEL 81 IN 2007 83 IN 1972 87 IN 1972 84 IN 1972
KENTFIELD 83 IN 2005 85 IN 2004 86 IN 2004 87 IN 1914
NAPA 86 IN 2005 86 IN 2004 88 IN 2004 92 IN 1914
RICHMOND 81 IN 2005 85 IN 2004 84 IN 1972 83 IN 2004
LIVERMORE 84 IN 1916 83 IN 1972 88 IN 1972 87 IN 1972
SAN FRANCISCO 79 IN 2007 82 IN 2004 85 IN 1914 85 IN 1914
SFO AIRPORT 77 IN 2007 81 IN 2004 82 IN 2004 82 IN 2004
REDWOOD CITY 83 IN 2005 84 IN 2004 84 IN 2004 85 IN 2004
HALF MOON BAY 75 IN 2014 74 IN 1974 78 IN 1972 83 IN 2004
OAKLAND MUSEUM 80 IN 2007 85 IN 2004 85 IN 2004 85 IN 2004
SAN JOSE 81 IN 2007 82 IN 2004 85 IN 1914 88 IN 1914
SALINAS AIRPORT 83 IN 2007 83 IN 1972 87 IN 2004 87 IN 2004
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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