784
FXUS66 KMTR 130859
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
159 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINOR HEATRISK CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY
- A SHARP WARM-UP SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL KICK OFF AN EARLY
SEASON HEAT WAVE WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
HEATRISK NEXT WEEK
- ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES DUE TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE CA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE PUMPING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE WEST COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TROUGH THE DAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MEANDERS A
LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE THE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT THE MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1229 AM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, BUT FOR A
DIFFERENT REASON. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR, BUT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A QUICK BITE OUT OF THE RIDGE. 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM AROUND 5850M ON FRIDAY TO AROUND
5770M ON SATURDAY MORNING. THAT'S STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL (5650M)
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
CAUSING THE WINDS TO VEER OFFSHORE. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING AS STRONG
AS WE EVER SEEN IN MARCH. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
SUNDAY BEFORE CLEAR SKIES AND UNFILTERED HEAT MOVES IN FOR THE
PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE STARTING MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES, BUT THE HEAT
WAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MORE NOTICEABLE RELIEF
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH.
THE GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HEAT WAVE IS REMARKABLE. I'M
GOING TO COVER IT IN DETAIL HERE, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
AUDIBLY GASPED WHEN I SAW THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. I HAVE NEVER SEEN IT ANYWHERE
NEAR THIS AGGRESSIVE WITH BRIGHT RED PAINTED ACROSS THE STATE.
THAT MEANS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A 99-100% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING THE MAXIMUM VALUES OF M-CLIMATE (20-YEAR DATABASE).
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STRONGLY POINTS RECORD BREAKING HEAT.
THERE IS A 75% CHANCE THAT THE 500MB HEIGHT WILL BREAK 5900M
MONDAY EVENING (MARCH RECORD: 5885M). THERE IS ALSO A 75% CHANCE
THE 850MB TEMP WILL BREAK 20C TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY (MARCH RECORD:
19.2C). THE 250 MB HEIGHT IS VERY LIKELY TO SET A MONTHLY RECORD
AS WELL. ALL OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS, CREATES THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT. AS
SUCH, WE EXPECT A SLEW OF DAILY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN, AND SEVERAL
MONTHLY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWN AS WELL. ONE FINAL NOTE ON
THE UPPER LEVEL STATISTICS BEFORE THE HYPE TRAIN RUNS OFF THE
RAILS; THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY HIGH FOR MARCH (NEAR THE LOWEST
HEIGHTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY), BUT WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
AS SUCH, EXPECT NEXT WEEK TO FEEL LIKE EARLY AUGUST, JUST WITHOUT
THE MARINE LAYER.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BUT
COMFORTABLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST, ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES JUMP 5-10 DEGREES BEFORE ANOTHER
SIMILAR INCREASE MONDAY. DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
90S, INCLUDING MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUT NOT NEARLY ENOUGH TO END THE HEAT WAVE. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER MODERATE HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL AFFECTS PEOPLE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING
AND HYDRATION. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS OUR FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE
YEAR AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THESE TEMPERATURES SINCE SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 923 PM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONTINUES THIS EVENING. 5.0 MB ACV-SFO, 2.6 MB SFO-SMX AND 1.5
MB SFO-SAC PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUPPORT ONGOING NORTHWEST WINDS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST WEEK FOR POTENTIAL NIGHT-TIME
AND MORNING COASTAL STRATUS/FOG; SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRATUS MOVING SOUTHWARD PASSING BY POINT REYES. 06Z KHAF, KOAK AND
KMRY TAFS ADVERTISE STRATUS LIFR-IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. INLAND TERMINALS CONTINUE WITH VFR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE 06Z TAFS OTHERWISE COASTAL
STRATUS/FOG IS LIKELY TO MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND NEAR 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PATCHY STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS /IFR/ RETURNS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WESTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 845 PM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY INCREASE FOR THE NEAR SHORE ZONES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. WINDS
AND SEAS EASE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM
SITES FOR MARCH 15TH, 16TH, 17TH AND 18TH.
LOCATION MAR 15 MAR 16 MAR 17 MAR 18
SANTA ROSA 88 IN 2004 91 IN 2004 87 IN 1996 84 IN 2010
SAN RAFAEL 83 IN 1972 87 IN 1972 84 IN 1972 80 IN 1996
KENTFIELD 85 IN 2004 86 IN 2004 87 IN 1914 89 IN 1914
NAPA 86 IN 2004 88 IN 2004 92 IN 1914 87 IN 1914
RICHMOND 85 IN 2004 84 IN 1972 83 IN 2004 78 IN 1996
LIVERMORE 83 IN 1972 88 IN 1972 87 IN 1972 86 IN 2004
SAN FRANCISCO 82 IN 2004 85 IN 1914 85 IN 1914 86 IN 1914
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2004 82 IN 2004 82 IN 2004 77 IN 2004
REDWOOD CITY 84 IN 2004 84 IN 2004 85 IN 2004 84 IN 2004
HALF MOON BAY 74 IN 1974 78 IN 1972 83 IN 2004 75 IN 1978
OAKLAND MUSEUM 85 IN 2004 85 IN 2004 85 IN 2004 81 IN 2004
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2004 85 IN 1914 88 IN 1914 87 IN 1914
SALINAS AIRPORT 83 IN 1972 87 IN 2004 87 IN 2004 84 IN 1960
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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