910
FXUS66 KMTR 280722
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1222 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- BENEFICIAL RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION IS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RIPPLES, WHICH ARE DISCERNIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE WE'RE SEEING A PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHINESS AT THE COAST LED TO
NOTABLE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY. THAT HAS SINCE FADED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENED AND BEGAN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
PLAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE
FADING OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEING REPLACED BY A SLOW ADVANCING
SOUTHERLY SURGE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE SLOWLY OOZING NORTHWARD
TOWARD ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. HI-RES WRF/HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE
BRING THE SURGE NORTHWARD INITIALLY TO MONTEREY BAY AND THEN
FARTHER NORTHWARD UP THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE SURGE
OF CLOUDS ARE PREDICTED TO HUG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. THE COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN
CHECK TEMP WISE, BUT MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND AND IT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER WITH HIGHS INT HE 70S AND 80S. THOSE HIGHS WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW CLIMATE SITES MAKE A RUN AT
RECORDS AGAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HUG THE COAST
AND NOSE ITS WAY INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COMPRESSED
NATURE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS/FOG TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW RAMPS UP THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A HINT OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
AS SUCH, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND BE MOST
PREVALENT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. NO BIG CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS ON
SUNDAY AND LESS MARINE INFLUENCE WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE 70S AND 80S WITH A
FEW INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST SPOTS MAKING A RUN FOR 90. GOES WITH
OUT SAYING, A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN FIRST BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW AND MUCH MORE ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INITIALLY DROP BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. DESPITE
THE DROP FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE STILL A FEW ABOVE NORMAL.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE DROP IN
TEMPS WILL BE WELCOMED SIGHT FOR SOME MUCH FOR WAS IS BEING PUT
ON RAIN CHANCES. SO WILL IT RAIN MIDWEEK? PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
KINDA SPLIT IN TWO CAMPS: ONE A DEEPER TROUGH WITH MORE DIRECTION
IMPACT OVER CENTRAL CA OR LESS DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AND MORE
IMPACT NORTHWARD. IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR PRECIP THE TREND ISN'T
YOUR AND TONIGHT'S MODEL TREND IS DRIER. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH MIDWEEK IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN INSIDE SLIDER WITH LESS
"DOWN THE COAST" TRAJECTORY. WE WERE ALSO MONITORING A DECENT
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME/TAP AS WELL. SADLY, THIS PLUME DOES TAKE A
CENTRAL COAST PATH, BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH. WHILE RAIN FALLS AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED
WE HAVEN'T COMPLETELY REMOVED RAIN JUST YET. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL BRINGS LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD/STEADIER RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NOW FOR THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND FAR E BAY NOTHING TO
A TRACE/0.01", COAST, NORTH BAY, AND BAY AREA A FEW HUNDREDTHS,
AND COASTAL MTS UP TO 0.25"
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS AND FOG ARE BEGINNING TO CRAWL UP THE BIG SUR COAST. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE PROGRESSION AND EXTENT OF THIS STRATUS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE STRATUS
TO COME TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 09-10Z, WITH
INTRUSIONS INTO THE SONOMA COUNTY VALLEYS, THE BERKELEY AREA, AND
THE MONTEREY BAY REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT STS, HAF, MRY, AND SNS THROUGH THE MORNING.
STRATUS RETREATS AND LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY
STRATUS PERSISTING AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHILE THE GENTLE ONSHORE
WINDS RESUME IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS IMPACTS TONIGHT
AT THE TERMINAL, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS TO THE BERKELEY
AREA AND LOWER CONFIDENCE AT OAK. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
STRATUS IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT, LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SURGE OF
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 09-10Z WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY. SATURDAY MORNING, CEILINGS LIFT AND LATER DISSIPATE AS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME, WITH A POTENTIAL EARLY RETURN OF
STRATUS AROUND 03Z FOR MRY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, GENERATING A MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE AND MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NW WATERS, WITH A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8
FT. AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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