724
FXUS66 KMTR 281431
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
731 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- BENEFICIAL RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION IS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RIPPLES, WHICH ARE DISCERNIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE WE'RE SEEING A PATTERN SHIFT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHINESS AT THE COAST LED TO
NOTABLE OFFSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY. THAT HAS SINCE FADED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENED AND BEGAN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
PLAINS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE
FADING OFFSHORE FLOW IS BEING REPLACED BY A SLOW ADVANCING
SOUTHERLY SURGE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE SLOWLY OOZING NORTHWARD
TOWARD ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. HI-RES WRF/HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE
BRING THE SURGE NORTHWARD INITIALLY TO MONTEREY BAY AND THEN
FARTHER NORTHWARD UP THE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE SURGE
OF CLOUDS ARE PREDICTED TO HUG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. THE COOLER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN
CHECK TEMP WISE, BUT MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND AND IT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER WITH HIGHS INT HE 70S AND 80S. THOSE HIGHS WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW CLIMATE SITES MAKE A RUN AT
RECORDS AGAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL HUG THE COAST
AND NOSE ITS WAY INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COMPRESSED
NATURE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT
CLOUDS/FOG TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW RAMPS UP THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A HINT OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
AS SUCH, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND BE MOST
PREVALENT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. NO BIG CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS ON
SUNDAY AND LESS MARINE INFLUENCE WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE 70S AND 80S WITH A
FEW INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST SPOTS MAKING A RUN FOR 90. GOES WITH
OUT SAYING, A FEW RECORDS MAY FALL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN FIRST BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PACNW AND MUCH MORE ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INITIALLY DROP BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. DESPITE
THE DROP FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE STILL A FEW ABOVE NORMAL.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
OR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE DROP IN
TEMPS WILL BE WELCOMED SIGHT FOR SOME MUCH FOR WAS IS BEING PUT
ON RAIN CHANCES. SO WILL IT RAIN MIDWEEK? PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
KINDA SPLIT IN TWO CAMPS: ONE A DEEPER TROUGH WITH MORE DIRECTION
IMPACT OVER CENTRAL CA OR LESS DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AND MORE
IMPACT NORTHWARD. IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR PRECIP THE TREND ISN'T
YOUR AND TONIGHT'S MODEL TREND IS DRIER. THE DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH MIDWEEK IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN INSIDE SLIDER WITH LESS
"DOWN THE COAST" TRAJECTORY. WE WERE ALSO MONITORING A DECENT
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME/TAP AS WELL. SADLY, THIS PLUME DOES TAKE A
CENTRAL COAST PATH, BUT QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS THE
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES THROUGH. WHILE RAIN FALLS AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED
WE HAVEN'T COMPLETELY REMOVED RAIN JUST YET. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL BRINGS LIGHT RAIN BACK TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD/STEADIER RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NOW FOR THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST AND FAR E BAY NOTHING TO
A TRACE/0.01", COAST, NORTH BAY, AND BAY AREA A FEW HUNDREDTHS,
AND COASTAL MTS UP TO 0.25"
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRATUS IS MAKING ITS WAY UP THE COASTLINE WITH HAF REPORTING
CEILINGS AROUND 500 FT. KEPT IN FOG CHANCES FOR STS BUT IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR OTHER AIRPORTS TONIGHT. STRATUS IS ARRIVING
LATER THIS MORNING THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST BUT IT SHOULD FILL IN
ALONG THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE CLEARING BY 17-19Z BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
TO LAST LONGER AT COASTAL SITES (HAF, MRY, SNS). A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER LOOKS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING STRATUS BACK
TO COASTAL SITES. CONFIDENCE IS MIXED AS TO THE TIMING OF TONIGHT'S
STRATUS RETURN. GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A LATER RETURN OF STRATUS
(AFTER 06Z) COMPARED TO AN EARLY RETURN (00-06Z) LIKE WAS IN THE 06Z
TAFS. GIVEN THE LATER RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT, I TENDED TO AGREE
WITH THE LATER STRATUS ARRIVAL TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO REACH SFO
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
(~500 FT) WILL KEEP STRATUS CONFINED DIRECTLY TO THE COASTLINE AND
WON'T FILTER INTO THE SF BAY. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS EASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCE FOR
STRATUS TO REACH SFO AGAIN TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE SHALLOW AND AROUND 500 FT AGAIN.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...STRATUS IS FILTERING INTO THE MONTEREY BAY
AND SALINAS VALLEY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SNS BY 12/13Z
AND LAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TAKE SLIGHTLY
LONGER TO FILL IN AT MRY BUT WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ARRIVE
BETWEEN 13-17Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL CLEAR 17/18Z
BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO LAST LONGER THAN IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS HANGING AROUND ALONG
THE COASTLINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STRATUS BANK DOES NOT
DISSIPATE MUCH DURING THE DAY THEN WE MAY SEE AN EARLIER RETURN OF
STRATUS TONIGHT. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARDS A LATER ARRIVAL OF STRATUS
BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
GUSTS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
RETURNS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS BUILD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 717 AM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 28TH AND MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 28TH MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 85 IN 1923 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 81 IN 2018 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 91 IN 1923 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2015 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 81 IN 1969 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 82 IN 2015 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 1986 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 77 IN 2018 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 81 IN 2018 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 79 IN 1968 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2015 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 84 IN 1923 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 84 IN 2004 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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