194
FXUS66 KMTR 290857
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
157 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
INCLUDING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING AS IT CREEPS UP THE COAST OF MONTEREY. THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR UP THE COAST IT MAKES IT BEFORE IT GETS
MIXED OUT BY MORNING. AFTER THAT, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE
DAY, BEFORE BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
DUE TO A PATTERN CHANGE. AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL BRING 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN, FAVORING THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE BAY AREA. WEDNESDAY CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE NORTH BAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO RISE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO THE PACNW THU AND THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. THIS MAY ALSO BRING SOME BREEZIER WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER RESULTS IN A MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR-LIFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGION, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT HAF. AT STS, LOW PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE
FOR LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING
IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DEPICTING STRATUS
RETREATING AWAY FROM THE BAY AREA COASTLINE.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENTLE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS RESUME DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS IMPACTS TONIGHT, ALREADY LOW TO VERY LOW, HAS DECREASED AT
THE TERMINAL, AS WELL AS TO THE EAST INCLUDING AT OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... THE STRATUS LAYER HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS
ROBUSTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EARLIER FORECAST HAD EXPECTED.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IMPACTS TONIGHT HAS DECREASED, AND SOME
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT MRY COULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. A
COMPRESSING MARINE LAYER ALSO RESULTS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
STRATUS DISSIPATING EARLY, ESPECIALLY AT MRY WHERE SOME OFFSHORE
FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CLEARING. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP IN
THE REGION SHOULD CLEAR LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS RETURN IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES. THIS
SPREADS INTO THE INNER WATERS AND THE REST OF THE OUTER WATERS ON
SUNDAY, WHEN INFREQUENT STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY WILL BACK TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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