480
FXUS66 KMTR 291139
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
439 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
INCLUDING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING AS IT CREEPS UP THE COAST OF MONTEREY. THE
QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR UP THE COAST IT MAKES IT BEFORE IT GETS
MIXED OUT BY MORNING. AFTER THAT, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 142 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH A COOLING TREND WILL
BEGIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE
DAY, BEFORE BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
DUE TO A PATTERN CHANGE. AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL BRING 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN, FAVORING THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE BAY AREA. WEDNESDAY CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE NORTH BAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO RISE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO THE PACNW THU AND THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. THIS MAY ALSO BRING SOME BREEZIER WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT MRY AND SNS WHERE STRATUS IS ATTEMPTING TO
FILL IN OVER THE MONTEREY BAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
PEAKING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES. ANOTHER SHALLOW MARINE LAYER LOOKS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT HREF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS BANK LOCATED ALONG THE
BIG SUR COASTLINE.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS TO RETURN THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MIXED AS TO IF STRATUS
WILL FILL IN OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AND REACH SNS/MRY. RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRATUS WILL STAY OUT OF THE MONTEREY
BAY WHILE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL FILL IN. KEPT TEMPOS IN FOR
IFR CIGS AT MRY AND SNS FROM 12Z TO 16Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OTHERWISE, ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS PEAKING
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 KNOTS. ANOTHER SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS MIXED AS TO IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO
MRY/SNS. FOR NOW, LEANING TOWARDS STRATUS NOT REACHING MRY/SNS
TONIGHT BUT IF IT DOES IT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE (AFTER 12Z MONDAY).
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
WITH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFTS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD
AND WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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