507
FXUS66 KMTR 300637
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1137 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH COOLING TREND BEGINNING.
- LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A BIT INTERESTING, WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WHILE WEAK RIDGING FLATTENS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS WE SHOULD BEGIN A COOLING TREND. LOOKING AT
THE SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z SUN AND 0Z MON, THE 925MB AND 850MB REMAINED
WARM. GIVEN THE FORECAST ISN'T DEVIATING TOO MUCH, LOOKED INTO THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, PLUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. BOTH
FAVORED ELEVATED TEMPERATURES IN THOSE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM OUT PUT. OPTED
TO RUN WITH THE NBM EXP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCES PASSES OVER THE
PACNW. EACH TIME RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND
0.10" OR LESS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UP TO A 0.25" IN THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW SLIDES DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN. BREEZIER OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH SOME HAZE DEVELPING BUT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SOME HAZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW THAT MAY BRING LOW STRATUS BACK BY EARLY TUESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND OCCASIONAL NORTHWEST BREEZES
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRATUS MAY RETURN BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT IS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
TIME.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE AND MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A SW DIRECTION TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY NEAR GALE
FORCE NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM SITES FOR
MARCH 29TH.
LOCATION MARCH 29TH
SANTA ROSA 86 IN 2018
SAN RAFAEL 85 IN 2018
KENTFIELD 84 IN 1935
NAPA 83 IN 2018, 1968
RICHMOND 79 IN 1968
LIVERMORE 85 IN 2015
SAN FRANCISCO 81 IN 2018
SFO AIRPORT 81 IN 2018
REDWOOD CITY 85 IN 2018, 1968
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2004
OAKLAND 79 IN 2003
SAN JOSE 82 IN 2018
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 2018
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SARMENT
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