963
FXUS66 KMTR 301739
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1039 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH COOLING TREND BEGINNING.
- LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS A BIT INTERESTING, WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WHILE WEAK RIDGING FLATTENS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS WE SHOULD BEGIN A COOLING TREND. LOOKING AT
THE SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z SUN AND 0Z MON, THE 925MB AND 850MB REMAINED
WARM. GIVEN THE FORECAST ISN'T DEVIATING TOO MUCH, LOOKED INTO THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, PLUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. BOTH
FAVORED ELEVATED TEMPERATURES IN THOSE HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM OUT PUT. OPTED
TO RUN WITH THE NBM EXP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1136 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER CALIFORNIA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCES PASSES OVER THE
PACNW. EACH TIME RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND
0.10" OR LESS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND UP TO A 0.25" IN THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER LOW SLIDES DIGS
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN. BREEZIER OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS AND
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER A GRADUALLY
LOWERING DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT DECREASING CHANCE FOR
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING. DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE-THU
WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUDS, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE AIRPORT HAS BEEN REPORTING CALM WINDS FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BY 20Z ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE TYPICAL 280-300 DIRECTION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE BACK TO A GENTLE BREEZE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE BRIEF FOG IMPACT HAS CLEARED AND THE
TERMINALS WILL ENJOY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRATUS TO MOVE IN AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY,
PARTICULARLY AT MRY. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF SOME DISTURBED WEATHER TUESDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BACKING TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
INCREASE AND VEER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO BECOME STRONG AND
NORTHERLY. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AS A RESULT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...SARMENT
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