301
FXUS66 KMTR 310830
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
130 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN, CLOUDY SKIES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WE FLIRT AT ABOUT
10-20% CHANCE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE TO 30-50% BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THOUGH A 60-80% CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. EVEN WITH THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND A 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT, CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
MOVING IN BY MID WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MID WEDNESDAY AND WRAPS UP BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
NOTABLY HIGHER, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS NOW RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.60" WHILE THE VALLEY IS 0.05-
0.25". FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ THE
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.10-0.35", WHILE THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY AMOUNTS
ARE CLOSER TO 0.05-0.15". FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 0-.10", WHILE THE SANTA LUCIA
MAY SEE UP TO 0.20".
BY MID THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT TRACKED OVER THE PACNW
MOVES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEPENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME TO
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY AND A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 30-45 MPH FOR
FAVORED GAPS, RIDGES, AND MOUNTAINS, WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND EAST AND SOUTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM ON FRIDAY, WITH THE WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, A
SOUTHERN SURGE OF STRATUS UP THE BIG SUR COAST LINE MAY IMPACT THE
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRATUS IN VICINITY OF THE BAY AREA TERMINALS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTIONING IN THE TAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR
SUNRISE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KSNS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER KMRY MAY HOVER BETWEEN IFR/VFR
WITH CIGS FROM A SOUTHERN SURGES THAT MOVED UP THE BIG SUR
COASTLINE TODAY. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD AND BECOME VERY ROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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