774
FXUS66 KMTR 311142
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
442 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN, CLOUDY SKIES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WE FLIRT AT ABOUT
10-20% CHANCE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE TO 30-50% BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THOUGH A 60-80% CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. EVEN WITH THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND A 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT, CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
MOVING IN BY MID WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MID WEDNESDAY AND WRAPS UP BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
NOTABLY HIGHER, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS NOW RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.60" WHILE THE VALLEY IS 0.05-
0.25". FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ THE
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.10-0.35", WHILE THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY AMOUNTS
ARE CLOSER TO 0.05-0.15". FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 0-.10", WHILE THE SANTA LUCIA
MAY SEE UP TO 0.20".
BY MID THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT TRACKED OVER THE PACNW
MOVES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEPENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME TO
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY AND A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 30-45 MPH FOR
FAVORED GAPS, RIDGES, AND MOUNTAINS, WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND EAST AND SOUTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM ON FRIDAY, WITH THE WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE ON AND
OFF FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LOCALLY GUSTY AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS
RETURN OVERNIGHT BUT THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO GO THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT BUT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO MAKE PORTIONS OF THE ROAD SLICK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INITIAL SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MRY/SNS BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE OVER THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH MRY/SNS TONIGHT RATHER
THAN THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN APPROACHES. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD AND BECOME MODERATE
ROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page