073
FXUS66 KMTR 311805
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1105 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN, CLOUDY SKIES, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF CHANCES FOR RAIN WE FLIRT AT ABOUT
10-20% CHANCE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE TO 30-50% BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THOUGH A 60-80% CHANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. EVEN WITH THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND A 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT, CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
MOVING IN BY MID WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 129 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES MID WEDNESDAY AND WRAPS UP BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
NOTABLY HIGHER, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH BAY. AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS NOW RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.60" WHILE THE VALLEY IS 0.05-
0.25". FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ THE
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.10-0.35", WHILE THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY AMOUNTS
ARE CLOSER TO 0.05-0.15". FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 0-.10", WHILE THE SANTA LUCIA
MAY SEE UP TO 0.20".
BY MID THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT TRACKED OVER THE PACNW
MOVES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEPENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME TO
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY AND A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS, WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 30-45 MPH FOR
FAVORED GAPS, RIDGES, AND MOUNTAINS, WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS AND EAST AND SOUTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM ON FRIDAY, WITH THE WARMING AND
DRYING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K-15K FEET.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. WINDS
EASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS RAIN SHOWERS RETURN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, CEILINGS LOWER TO SUB-VFR WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IFR ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, VCSH
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA
RETURNING BY 18Z WHEN WE MAY SEE LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KMRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KSNS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF
THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TODAY WILL INCREASE TO BECOME
MODERATE TO FRESH TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...SARMENT
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