448
FXUS66 KMTR 011219
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
519 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY, WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
FOR INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE NEXT ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH THE CENTRAL
COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, WITH THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE UP TO 0.25-0.75", UP TO 1.0" FOR THE INTERIOR
RANGES, AND AROUND 0.10-.25" OF RAIN FOR THE VALLEYS. THE SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA TO SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IS FORECAST TO SEE AROUND
0.1-.30" WITH UP TO 0.5" FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. INTERIOR EAST
AND SOUTH BAY VALLEYS WILL BE CLOSE TO 0.05-0.15" OF RAIN, WHILE THE
DIABLO RANGE AND THE BERKELEY AND SAN LEANDRO HILLS MAY SEE UP TO
0.5". FOR INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES, AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOWER AND IN THE 0.0-0.15" RANGE WHILE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE
SANTA LUCIAS AMOUNTS FROM 0.10-0.30". IF TRAVELING TODAY, BE MINDFUL
THAT THE ROADWAYS MAY BE SLICK.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP
AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH, UP TO 40 MPH IN AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 102 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY, AS COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION AND THE PARENT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL BING DRIER
INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL
TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND EAST AND SOUTH BAY MOUNTAINS WITH 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON - HIT OR MISS SHOWERS - FOLLOWED BY A FROPA
TONIGHT. A FEW VCSH EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND SF BAY THEN A BRIEF
BREAK. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE FADE WITH THE SUNSET AND THE
A FROPA WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP INITIALLY N BAY 03-05Z
THEN SF BAY 04-07Z AND TERMINALS SOUTH 08-10Z. LATEST TIMING
SUGGEST SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO THIS AM/PM RUSH, BUT THURS AM RUSH
LESS LIKELY.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR VCSH LINGERING INTO THE AM RUSH(AROUND
14Z). VCSH RETURN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH -SHRA FOR EVENING
RUSH. STEADIER PRECIP 04-08Z. ONSHORE WINDS RAMP UP AFTER 20Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR AFTER 06Z
WITH PRECIP RETURNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM PDT WED APR 1 2026
A PASSING COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS. A FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY NORTH OF PIGEON POINT INITIALLY BEFORE
SPREAD SOUTH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS
BUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
WINDS AND SEAS EASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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