361
FXUS66 KMTR 020651
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1151 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOL,
GUSTY, AND RAINY CONDITIONS.
- DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN MID THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES.
- OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL,
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHILE HIGHER POINTS OF TERRAIN SEE GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN
TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM, NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, THE MOUNTAINS AND HILLS OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY WILL SEE UP TO 0.25" WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO
0.05-0.15". FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 0.0-0.15", PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. DRIER
WEATHER WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE 60S FOR INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AND IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND IN HIGHER POINTS OF ELEVATION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND HOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, ACCOMPANIED WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE EAST BAY HILLS, EASTERN SANTA CLARA
HILLS, AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS EASE FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
WOULD RETURN ALONG WITH THE 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN, FAVORING THE
NORTH BAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH
BAY INTO THE BAY AREA AT TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE.
GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE MVFR CIGS LIFT, EXPECT VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.
VICINITY OF SFO...
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN UNTIL THE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...
SIMILAR AS SFO
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONCE THE
MVFR CIGS LIFT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BREEZY AND WEST/NORTHWEST IN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE SUNRISE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER AND BECOME FRESH AND NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE COLD MOVES THROUGH WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES
DIMINISH AND SEAS ABATE BY THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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