413
FXUS66 KMTR 021759
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1057 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH COOL,
GUSTY, AND RAINY CONDITIONS.
- DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN MID THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES.
- OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL,
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WHILE HIGHER POINTS OF TERRAIN SEE GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN
TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM, NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, THE MOUNTAINS AND HILLS OF THE BAY AREA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY WILL SEE UP TO 0.25" WHILE VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO
0.05-0.15". FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 0.0-0.15", PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. DRIER
WEATHER WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE 60S FOR INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AND IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND IN HIGHER POINTS OF ELEVATION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1145 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND HOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, ACCOMPANIED WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE EAST BAY HILLS, EASTERN SANTA CLARA
HILLS, AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS EASE FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
WOULD RETURN ALONG WITH THE 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN, FAVORING THE
NORTH BAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STEEPEN THE ACV-SFO AND WMC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE BAY AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LLWS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY. VFR IN THE 18Z TAFS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
FRIDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAYS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY
BREEZES DIMINISH AND SEAS ABATE BY THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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