840
FXUS66 KMTR 021901
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1201 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
- OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
- COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
IN WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG NORTHWEST
FACING COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND HILLS) WILL RETURN AS THE CENTER OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH IN THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH IN THE EAST BAY HILLS,
EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS, AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SO, LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND RETURN REGIONWIDE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NUDGES EASTWARD. IN ADDITION,
STRONGER WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AIDING IN THE WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL LOCATIONS
(SUCH AS THE SANTA CRUZ REGION).
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1200 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (UP
TO 20 IN THE WARMER INTERIOR SPOTS). THIS IS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 12-15 DEGREES C. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS,
YET ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK TO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL IS ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AND COASTAL RANGES WHERE THERE IS 15-25% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.25" OF RAINFALL ENDING 5 PM WEDNESDAY
(NEXT WEEK). THEREFORE, NO FLOODING OR MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STEEPEN THE ACV-SFO AND WMC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE BAY AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LLWS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY. VFR IN THE 18Z TAFS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
FRIDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAYS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY
BREEZES DIMINISH AND SEAS ABATE BY THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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