518
FXUS66 KMTR 030712
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1212 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
- MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
- WARM WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THURSDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER OREGON, AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS
NORTHERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS IT DOES, THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL STRENGTHEN. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT WAS +14 MB LAST NIGHT, AND IS
DROPPING SHARPLY. IT'S CURRENTLY AROUND -4.5 MB AND WILL BOTTOM
OUT AROUND -10 MB LATER TODAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE
HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE VACA
MOUNTAINS IN NAPA COUNTY. STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOURAGE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL ALLOW
STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THE BURST OF OFFSHORE WINDS, A WARMING TREND IS THE
BIGGEST STORY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED WELL INLAND, THE PATTERN IS FLIPPING BACK TO WARM AND DRY.
AT 500 MB, A NW TO SE ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
AVERAGED 2.8 C THURSDAY, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT METRIC WILL SHOOT UP TO
AROUND 13-14 C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OR ROUGHLY THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE COAST WILL GET IN ON THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL, THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WE WILL PICK UP SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL PLUME
OF MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO CLIMB. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THAT ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND IT'S POSSIBLE
WE COULD SET A DAILY RECORD OR TWO.
THE RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING THE
IMMEDIATE COAST BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A SOUTHERLY SURGE ON SUNDAY AS WELL. THIS CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE
LARGE SCALE E-W PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKLY OFFSHORE AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BUTTS UP AGAINST THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE, THE AIR CAN'T MAKE IT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HAS TO EITHER GO NORTH OR SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. THE PGE-WRF SHOWS A SOUTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
MORNING AND REACHING SAN FRANCISCO BY MIDDAY. SOUTHERLY SURGES ARE
HARD TO PREDICT THOUGH, SO IT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY OR
NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE MORE
TYPICAL MARINE LAYER WILL RETURN MONDAY AS STRONGER NW WINDS
RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO COOL
INLAND AREAS BACK INTO THE 70S MON-TUE.
BY MID-WEEK ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ALL AGREE THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK
TO A TROUGHING REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL VERY LIKELY BRING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/10
AND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN, WITH A 90% CHANCE IT'S WILL STAY BELOW 1".
THAT'S FIRMLY IN THE BENEFICIAL CATEGORY, AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. AFTER THE RAIN CHANCE WANE THURSDAY,
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH LLWS CONCERNS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE FROM WINDS ALOFT. AT APC, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ENERGY MAKING IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR, RESULTING
IN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 18 KT BETWEEN 12-18Z. CONSIDERED KEEPING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LOW TO MAINTAIN THE LLWS GROUP WITHIN THE
FORECAST, BUT OPTED TO PRIORITIZE REFLECTING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
AT THE SURFACE. FOR FRIDAY, INTERIOR REGIONS WILL SEE BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE AND
WEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS
TURNING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES RETURN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT MRY, GENTLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, WITH SNS
SEEING A RESUMPTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PDT THU APR 2 2026
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. NORTHERLY BREEZES DIMINISH AND SEAS ABATE BY THE WEEKEND,
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MRY
BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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