065
FXUS66 KMTR 041133
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
433 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 942 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WINDS EASE INTO THE WEEKEND
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A COOLING
TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK
- BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 942 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
THE BREEZIER WINDS OF THE DAY AND EASED AND THE RIDGE PATTERN IS
BUILDING. WINDS REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BECAUSE OF
THE RIDGE, WITH THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BEING LIGHT BUT
WIDESPREAD OFFSHORE FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HELPING TO PREVENT EXTRA RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MOST RECENT
MODEL UPDATES. WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR RECORDS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES HAVE REDUCED. IT SEEMS LIKE MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON THE HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE MID-DAY
WARMING ALONG WITH A REDUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
SUNDAY SEES CLEARING CONDITIONS, LEADING TO THAT AFTERNOON BEING THE
WARMEST OF THE FORECAST. PREDICTED HIGHS LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
FALL.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 942 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
LUCKILY, THIS RIDGE PATTERN EXITS INTO THE WORKWEEK PREVENTING ANY
THREATS OF LONG LASTING HEAT. THE JET STREAM TURNS TO MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR BETTER ONSHORE WINDS AND A
REFORMING MARINE LAYER. COASTAL AND VALLEY FOG AND STATUS LOOK TO
RETURN MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THESE
FACTORS WILL LEAD TO NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH A 5 TO 10
DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS. HOWEVER THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF BUILDING TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE. MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA IN THE MID-WEEK AS
THIS LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE LATE-WEEK
PATH OF THIS LOW, WITH SOME SHOWING RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND ITSELF AS THE LOW LOSES MOMENTUM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
HAS THE LOW AND ITS SHOWERS EXITING THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT COULD CHANGE IN FOLLOWING FORECAST UPDATES. WHAT
STAYS THE SAME IS THAT THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE GOOD CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET PAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WHILE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE AREA (THE
SANTA LUCIAS) ARE PREDICTED STAY BELOW A HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 429 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW LINGERS AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS (EARLY LOOK AT 12Z
OAKLAND SOUNDING). THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. NE FLOW THIS AM THEN ONSHORE BY LATER
AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN, STRONG BREEZES, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE LONG TERM
STATIONS FOR APRIL 4TH AND APRIL 5TH.
LOCATION APRIL 4TH APRIL 5TH
SANTA ROSA 88 IN 1961 90 IN 1939
KENTFIELD 85 IN 1957 88 IN 1924
SAN RAFAEL 86 IN 1960 87 IN 1957
NAPA 86 IN 1985, 1960 86 IN 1989, 1957
RICHMOND 89 IN 2011 83 IN 1989
LIVERMORE 87 IN 1959 84 IN 1989, 1916
SAN FRANCISCO 84 IN 1985 88 IN 1989
SFO AIRPORT 82 IN 1985 84 IN 1989
REDWOOD CITY 86 IN 1960 87 IN 1989
HALF MOON BAY 77 IN 2011 74 IN 2016
OAKLAND MUSEUM 85 IN 1985 85 IN 1989
SAN JOSE 87 IN 1960 89 IN 1989
SALINAS AIRPORT 86 IN 1989, 1960, 1952 95 IN 1989
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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