203
FXUS66 KMTR 060710
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1210 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
- COOLER INTO THE WORK WEEK
- BENEFICIAL RAIN ARRIVES IN THE MID WEEK AND LASTS INTO THE
WEEKEND
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
IT WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND
A DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD BROKEN AT LIVERMORE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STEADILY COOL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE DROPPING PRESSURE
ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO REBUILD. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
BUILDING ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SINCE
SUNSET. MOST COASTAL AREAS AND SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOOK TO
SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CHANCES INTO THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE
MID MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE REBUILDING MARINE LAYER AND BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON! THE IMMEDIATE COAST LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 60 DEGREES WHILE
THE INLAND AREAS SPAN THE 60S AND 70S. ONLY THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS
LOOK TO BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK, BUT JUST BARELY.
THE COOLING TREND WILL AFFECT MONDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AS WELL,
WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE MORE INLAND AREAS AND
AROUND 50 FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1139 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY MOSTLY THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW SAYS FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND THE MARINE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOES SEE A BIT OF WARM UP IN A FEW AREAS AS
THE WARM-SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE AREA.
THE EVENING MODEL UPDATES HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGH COMBO HEADING OUR WAY IN THE . THE WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF IT WILL FOSTER SOME DRIZZLE CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES. THESE CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THAT
NIGHT. MEASURABLE, BUT STILL VERY LIGHT, RAIN HAS MOSTLY BEEN PUSHED
BACK TO THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY FOR THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST. THESE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW
TO SLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING INTO THAT NIGHT.
THE MIXING ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE LOW WILL OFFER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY SHOWS
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES THAN THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
FORECASTERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOW CAN STILL CHANGE TRAJECTORY
AND SHIFT AROUND THESE STORM CHANCES.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS SATURDAY, CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW LOOK TO LAST INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS IMPACTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SF BAY
TERMINALS, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IMPACTS AT SJC AND THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL RETREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL REGIONS MONDAY EVENING, WITH MORE
INLAND EXPANSION AFTER THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO... MVFR-IFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FLOW THROUGH THE
GOLDEN GATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STRATUS IMPACTS, WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE SOCKED IN BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 18-20Z, WITH BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STRATUS WILL FLOW
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IMPACTS AT SFO COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH THE STRATUS
CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING
STRATUS RETURNING ON MONDAY EVENING AROUND 02-03Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP EARLY TO
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO
LATE WEEK, BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MODERATE SEAS. WINDS INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A FRESH BREEZE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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