506
FXUS66 KMTR 281119
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
419 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM PDT MON APR 27 2026
- MORNING STRATUS AND FOG RETURNS TO THE FORECAST!
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LATE WEEK FOR AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1047 PM PDT MON APR 27 2026
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE EVENING STILL HAD A FEW AREAS OF RAIN IN THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF SONOMA CO, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER FOR SOME OF THE COAST AND
MOUNTAINTOPS DISTRICTWIDE OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE VALLEYS SEE GOOD
CHANCES FOR FOG BUILDING IN THE LATE NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE
MID MORNING.
THE STEADY WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS
GETTING CLOSE TO AVERAGE, THOUGH SLIGHTLY BELOW. COASTAL AREAS WILL
PEAK AROUND 60 DEGREES WHILE AREAS INLAND WILL SEE THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE, SO THEY'LL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SOME STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 50 DEGREES IN ON THE BIG SUR COAST.
THE WARMING COMES FROM A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, BUT A CUT OFF
LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A WARM UP, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW LOOKS TO OFFER JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA THAT THE MARINE LAYER STAYS INTACT THROUGH THE WEEK, AND
KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND IMMEDIATE
COAST. THIS MARINE INFLUENCE WON'T SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND, SO THE
MORE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A STEADY WARMING UNTIL THE
PATTERN CHANGES THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY SEES HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST PLATEAUING: STILL
AROUND 60 DEGREES. AREAS INLAND WILL CONTINUE WARMING AND GET BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS GETTING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND A FEW SPOTS BREAKING 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S BY THE MID WEEK.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1047 PM PDT MON APR 27 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE INLAND WARMING TREND LOOKS TO PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH THE 80S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW 90S IN THE
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO STICK TO THE 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD COASTAL BREEZES, THE
MARINE LAYER, AND NIGHTLY MARINE STRATUS. THE AREAS SLIGHTLY INLAND
WILL BE A MIXED BAG. THOSE THAT SEE THE MARINE LAYER AND STRATUS LOOK
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S, WHILE AREAS THAT WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LEAN CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. IT'LL BE THE
KIND OF DAY WHERE YOU DRIVE FROM HALF MOON BAY TO SAN JOSE AND
EXPERIENCE AROUND A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.
A TROUGH AND LOW APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDING THE MARINE LAYER BOTH IN HEIGHT AND INLAND
PUSH. MODELS ARE GOING BACK TO THE SOLUTION HINTED AT A FEW NIGHTS
AGO, WITH THIS LOW CAUSING ANOTHER DRIZZLE-FEST WITH SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN. THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IS STILL NOT FIRM
ACROSS MODELS, BUT FOR NOW IT DOES LOOK BETTER FOR DRIZZLE IN THE
MID-WEEKEND WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. WELCOME TO MAY-GRAY!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA AND IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAWN HAS DIMINISHED, WITH
A PASSING TROUGH POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING THE MARINE LAYER. STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE PATTERN
WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH STRATUS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ON THIS EVENING, MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR AT PRESENT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING THROUGH DAWN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
LATE EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT STRATUS FLOWING ACROSS
THE GOLDEN GATE TONIGHT, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS IMPACTS AT OAK.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... LOWER CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS IMPACTS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THROUGH DAWN. LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS RETURNS TO MRY EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT DEVELOPMENT AT SNS
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BUILD ROUGH SEAS OF 8-12 FEET ACROSS EXPOSED WATERS LATER IN
THE WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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