053
FXUS66 KMTR 290801
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
101 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LATE WEEK FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COASTAL STRATUS IS BUILDING ALONG THE SF PENINSULA AND AROUND POINT
REYES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST, WILL BUILD
FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT, AFFECTING THE BAYS. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR
THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS BECOMING MORE STABLE, AND LOOKS TO STAY
INTACT DESPITE THE RIDGING PATTERN TO THE NORTH. A BIG PLAYER IN
RETAINING THE MARINE LAYER IS THE CUT OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH WEST
WHICH WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A CLIMB IN PRESSURE AND KEEP THE
MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COAST ON THE BREEZIER SIDE.
WHILE THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL AND SLIGHTLY INLAND
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AREAS FURTHER
INLAND WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY OFFERS HIGHS IN
THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AREAS INLAND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
A FEW SPOTS BREAKING 80. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SEEMS TO HAVE
SLIGHTLY WEEKEND IN THE FORECAST UPDATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SEE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM, BUT STRONG
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MAKE THE
OVERNIGHT WARMING TREND MUCH MORE MODEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR AREAS IN THE
NORTH BAY AND POTIONS OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY WILL SEE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WITH THE WARMEST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO THE LOWERS 80S. THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE WILL
BE FELT IN THE INTERIOR SOUTH BAY AND THE MORE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES: GOING FROM THE LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY.
THE TREND BREAKS ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL ALSO CALL FOR
EXPANDING THE MARINE LAYER BOTH IN HEIGHT AND INLAND PUSH, AND ALONG
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES, BUT NOT A LOT
IN ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND. DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO START SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES FOR PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS BUILDING INTO THAT NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MODELS STILL NEED TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE EXIT OF
THIS LOW, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CONDITIONS COULD
LAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE AND WARMING TREND
BEGIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
STARTING TO SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOP NEAR HAF AND MONTEREY
BAY AS OF THE 06Z. ELSEWHERE VFR WITH NO NOTABLE CLOUDS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY STRATUS TO IMPACT TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AM.
THAT BEING SAID, IF A TREND IS YOUR FRIEND THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ACROSS THE N AND E BAY FOR CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. NOT ENOUGH OF A TREND TO REMOVE CIGS, BUT CONF IS
LESS. VFR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT KHAF.
VICINITY OF SFO...NO BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONF FOR SURE AS CIGS WILL BE
DRIFTING IN FROM THE N AND BARELY HITTING THE TERMINAL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. LESS CLOUDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AM. CIGS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE APPROACH FOR AM RUSH.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS KNOCKING ON MRY'S DOORSTEP. SNS CIGS DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT. BOTH TERMINALS THEN CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY MID
MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF
POINT REYES. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FRESH SWELL OF
8 TO 12 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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