433
FXUS66 KMTR 291759
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1059 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE LATE WEEK FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COASTAL STRATUS IS BUILDING ALONG THE SF PENINSULA AND AROUND POINT
REYES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPOTTY ALONG THE COAST, WILL BUILD
FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT, AFFECTING THE BAYS. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR
THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS BECOMING MORE STABLE, AND LOOKS TO STAY
INTACT DESPITE THE RIDGING PATTERN TO THE NORTH. A BIG PLAYER IN
RETAINING THE MARINE LAYER IS THE CUT OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH WEST
WHICH WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A CLIMB IN PRESSURE AND KEEP THE
MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE COAST ON THE BREEZIER SIDE.
WHILE THE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP COASTAL AND SLIGHTLY INLAND
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AREAS FURTHER
INLAND WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY OFFERS HIGHS IN
THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AREAS INLAND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
A FEW SPOTS BREAKING 80. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SEEMS TO HAVE
SLIGHTLY WEEKEND IN THE FORECAST UPDATE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SEE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM, BUT STRONG
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCE WILL MAKE THE
OVERNIGHT WARMING TREND MUCH MORE MODEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1257 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR AREAS IN THE
NORTH BAY AND POTIONS OF THE REST OF THE SF BAY WILL SEE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WITH THE WARMEST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO THE LOWERS 80S. THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE WILL
BE FELT IN THE INTERIOR SOUTH BAY AND THE MORE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES: GOING FROM THE LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY.
THE TREND BREAKS ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND WEAKENS.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AND
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL ALSO CALL FOR
EXPANDING THE MARINE LAYER BOTH IN HEIGHT AND INLAND PUSH, AND ALONG
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES, BUT NOT A LOT
IN ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND. DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO START SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCES FOR PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS BUILDING INTO THAT NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE WORK
WEEK. MODELS STILL NEED TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THE EXIT OF
THIS LOW, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RAIN CONDITIONS COULD
LAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE AND WARMING TREND
BEGIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
THE PATCHY FOG HAS CLEARED AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PULLED BACK TO THE
COAST. THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF. WHILE WE EXPECT
SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THERE, THE STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND JUST OFF THE COAST AND COULD MAKE A SURGE
AT ANY TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE WE EXPECT A FULLY FORMED MARINE LAYER BY
FRIDAY MORNING, WE'RE STILL IN THE TRANSITION THURSDAY MORNING AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND TEMPORARY. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF MVFR
STRATUS IMPACTS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
AROUND 15Z. THE WINDOW OF LIKELY IMPACTS IS ONLY AROUND 4-6 HOURS,
HOWEVER, AND THERE'S A CHANCE THE TERMINAL DODGES THESE CEILINGS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR IMPACTS STEADILY
INCREASES FROM 40% AT 06Z TO 80% BY 14Z. IF THEY FORM, THERE A
50% CHANCE THESE CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY, AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL BUILD ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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