807
FXUS66 KMTR 291957
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1257 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS THIS WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES F ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO
THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO OVER THE MONTEREY BAY REGION,
THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE INTO
OAKLAND. THERE IS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF THIS TO OCCUR AS THE
MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 1,200 FEET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S (COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS) TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
(UP TO 6 DEGREES F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES). HOWEVER, COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL DUE IN LARGE PART TO ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
MARINE INFLUENCE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 85 DEG F ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH THE WARMEST BEING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST
(GREATER THAN 50%). TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW, COASTAL STRATUS, AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2,000
FEET. THUS, EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS TO PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE
VALLEYS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS
WOULD BRING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THEN, AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, IT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE WPC
500 MB HEIGHT-BASED CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PATTERN OCCURING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT, WITH GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EARLY WEEK EVENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
THE PATCHY FOG HAS CLEARED AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE PULLED BACK TO THE
COAST. THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAF. WHILE WE EXPECT
SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THERE, THE STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND JUST OFF THE COAST AND COULD MAKE A SURGE
AT ANY TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE WE EXPECT A FULLY FORMED MARINE LAYER BY
FRIDAY MORNING, WE'RE STILL IN THE TRANSITION THURSDAY MORNING AND
THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND TEMPORARY. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF MVFR
STRATUS IMPACTS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
AROUND 15Z. THE WINDOW OF LIKELY IMPACTS IS ONLY AROUND 4-6 HOURS,
HOWEVER, AND THERE'S A CHANCE THE TERMINAL DODGES THESE CEILINGS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR IMPACTS STEADILY
INCREASES FROM 40% AT 06Z TO 80% BY 14Z. IF THEY FORM, THERE A
50% CHANCE THESE CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY, AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL BUILD ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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