832
FXUS66 KMTR 300019
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
519 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS THIS WEEKEND
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES F ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO
THE COASTAL ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO OVER THE MONTEREY BAY REGION,
THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE INTO
OAKLAND. THERE IS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF THIS TO OCCUR AS THE
MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 1,200 FEET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S (COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS) TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
(UP TO 6 DEGREES F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES). HOWEVER, COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL DUE IN LARGE PART TO ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
MARINE INFLUENCE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1256 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WE HAVE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 85 DEG F ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH THE WARMEST BEING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST
(GREATER THAN 50%). TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER
THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW, COASTAL STRATUS, AND THE MARINE INFLUENCE.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2,000
FEET. THUS, EXPECT COASTAL STRATUS TO PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE
VALLEYS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A REX BLOCK. THIS
WOULD BRING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THEN, AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, IT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THE WPC
500 MB HEIGHT-BASED CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PATTERN OCCURING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT, WITH GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EARLY WEEK EVENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, INCLUDING KHAF. A THE
MORE NOTE WORTHY ITEM THIS EVENING WILL BE THE STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO EXPECTING A FULL
FLEDGED MARINE LAYER TONIGHT, BUT SOME STRATUS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
FEW HOURS OF IMPACTS (800-1500 FT) EARLY THURSDAY AM. PATCHY FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KSTS AND KAPC. VFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONF FOR MORE ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER BY FRIDAY
AM.
VICINITY OF SFO...GUSTY (20-30KT) ONSHORE INTO THE EVENING RUSH.
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY AM.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
THEN THROUGH THURSDAY AM.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL BUILD ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IMPROVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...FLYNN
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